Ozone Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 1 Emissions Results Summary REGIONAL AIR QUALITY EMISSIONS ASSESSMENT OZONE NAAQS for the Connecticut portion of the New York -Northern New – Jersey -Long Island Ozone Nonattainment Area and the Greater Connecticut Ozone Nonattainment Area May 201 7 The Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 and the federal transportation regulations and legislation r ecognized the major contributions of transportation sources to the overall air quality problem evidenced throughout the country. To effectuate a reduction in transportation – related emissions and a corresponding improvement in air quality, areas designated as non – attainment or maintenance for a criterion pollutant were required to demonstrate that their transportation plans, programs and projects contributed to the attainment of National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and would not cause a new violati on or delay attainment of the NAAQS . This process is referred to as Air Quality Conformity . Connecticut is divided into two non -attainment area for the 8 -hour ozone NAAQS , both are classified as “ Moderate ” non -attainment areas . Fairfield, New Haven and M iddlesex counties are included as part of the New York -Northern New Jersey -Long Island (NY -NJ -CT) non – attainment area. The remainder of the state is designated as the Greater Connecticut non – attainment area. In June, 2004, the EPA finalized the 8 -hour co nformity for Ozone non -attainment areas and the designated the Connecticut portion of the New York -Northern New Jersey -Long Island non – attainment area as a “moderate” non -attainment areas for the 8 -hour Ozone standard. Subsequent decisions by the EPA and r evisions to the approach for classifying non -attainment areas re -designated both of Connecticut ’s non -attainment area s as a “marginal” non – attainment area s with an attainment date of December 31, 2015. Based on 2012 -2014 air quality data, the EPA determined that Connecticut’s non -attainment areas did not attain ozone standards by July20, 2015. Both the Greater Connecticut and the New York -New Jersey -Long Island areas were reclassified as “Moderate,” eff ective June 3, 2016. The new attainment date for these two areas is July 20, 2018. The Connecticut Department of Transportation is responsible for conducting the air quality emissions assessments for the metropolitan planning organizations in Connecticut. The CTDOT uses the statewide travel demand model to estimate vehicle miles of travel for various classes of highways and during various time periods. The future transportation network includes all planned improvement projects and is based on the complete implementation of the transportation improvement program (TIP) and the long range transportation plans. The MOVES201 4a emissions model is used to calculate emissions from transportation travel . The 8 -hour budgets were developed jointly by CTDOT and CTDEEP . The budgets were found to be adequate by EPA and can be used in comparing future transportation -related emission to determine conformity. Ozone Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 2 Emissions Results Summary The conformity test requires the emissions from the future transportation system to be less than the EPA -approved budgets for all analysis years. The emissions analyses were conducted for the following years: • 201 8 – New attainment year and near term analysis year • 2025 – Interim modeling year • 2035 – Interim modeling year • 2040 – Long range transportation plan horizon year The results of the quantitative emis sions analysis conducted by CT DOT are shown in the following tables and the analysis year trends are depicted in the charts following the tables. CENTRAL NAUGATUCK VALLEY PLANNING REGION 2015 -2040 LONG RA NGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN REGION EMISSIONS ANALYSIS RESULTS 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS Connecticut portion of the New York -Northern New Jersey -Long Island, NY -NJ – CT Ozone Nonattainment Area VOC Emission Analysis NO X Emission Analysis Analysis Year Action SIP Budget Difference Action SIP Budget Difference 201 8 Emissions 16 .56 27.4 0 -10 .84 22.39 54.6 0 -32 .21 2025 Emissions 12.3 3 27.4 0 -15.0 7 13.2 6 54.6 0 -41.3 4 2035 Emissions 7.2 6 27.4 0 -20.1 4 7.8 6 54.6 0 -46.7 4 2040 Emissions 6.6 8 27.4 0 -20.7 2 7.3 5 54.6 0 -47.2 5 1. A small reduction in VMT and emissions in the Greater Connecticut area will occur from the ECO program in the Connecticut portion of the NY -NJ -LI area due to travel between the areas. 2. VOC & NOx e mission s are in tons per summer day and are calculated using Connecticut’s vehicle mix . 3. HMPS 14 Functional Class system used. 4. National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV) program included in 2008 and future years. 5. Eight Hour Ozone emission budgets effective June 27, 2008. 6. Series 31C with 20 iterations equilibrium assignment. Ozone Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 3 Emissions Results Summary 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2018 2025 2035 2040 Estimated VOC Emissions by Analysis Year Compared to Approved EPA Budget CT Portion of NY -NJ -LI-CT Non -Attainment Area Estimated VOC emissions (Tons/Day) EPA VOC Budget (Tons/Day) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2018 2025 2035 2040 Estimated NOx Emissions by Analysis Year Compared to Approved EPA Budget CT Portion of NY -NJ -LI-CT Non -Attainment Area Estimated NOx Emissions (Tons/Day) EPA NOx Budget (Tons/Day) Ozone Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 4 Emissions Results Summary CENTRAL NAUGATUCK VALLEY PLANNING REGION 2015 -2040 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN REGION EMISSIONS ANALYSIS RESULTS 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS Greater Connecticut Non -Attainment Area VOC Emission Analysis NO X Emission Analysis Analysis Year Action SIP Budget Difference Action SIP Budget Difference 201 8 Emissions 15. 07 26.3 0 -11.23 19 .74 49.2 0 -29 .46 2025 Emissions 11.3 8 26.3 0 -14.9 2 11.8 6 49.2 0 -37.3 4 2035 Emissions 6.65 26.3 0 -19.6 5 6.9 1 49.2 0 -42 .29 2040 Emissions 6.1 5 26.3 0 -20.1 5 6.4 8 49.2 0 -42.7 2 1. A small reduction in VMT and emissions in the Greater Connecticut area will occur from the ECO program in the Connecticut portion of the NY -NJ -LI area due to travel between the areas. 2. VOC & NOx emissions are in tons per summer day and are calculated using Connecticut’s vehicle mix. 3. HMPS 14 Functional Class system used. 4. National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV) program included in 2008 and future years. 5. Eight Hour Ozone emission budgets ef fective June 27, 2008. 6. Series 31C with 20 iterations equilibrium assignment. Ozone Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 5 Emissions Results Summary 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2018 2025 2035 2040 Estimated VOC Emissions by Analysis Year Compared to Approved EPA Budget Greater CT Non -Attainment Area Estimated VOC emissions (Tons/Day) EPA VOC Budget (Tons/Day) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2018 2025 2035 2040 Estimated NOx Emissions by Analysis Year Compared to Approved EPA Budget Greater CT Non -Attainment Area Estimated NOx Emissions (Tons/Day) EPA NOx Budget (Tons/Day)