Table of Contents Connecticut Department of Transportation Council of Governments of the Central Naugatuck Valley Greater Bridgeport and Valley Metropolitan Planning Organization South Central Regional Council of Governments Western Connecticut Council of Goverments PM 2.5 Air Quality Conformity Determination of the 2015 Regional Transportation Plans and the FY 2015 -2018 Transportation Improvement Programs Amendments for the Connecticut portion of the NY -NJ -CT PM 2.5 Attainment/Maintenance Area September 2016 Note: The five Connecticut MPOs (CNVMPO, GBVMPO, HVMPO, SCRCOG and SWRMPO ) are part of the larger NY – NJ -CT PM 2.5 Nonattainment Area and this document includes the documentation of the regional analysis for the entire Connecticut portion of the nonattainment area, as well as documentation and information on the processes and procedures undertaken by CTDOT, coordinator of the Air Quality Conformity for the five Connecticut Metropolitan Planning Organizations. 2 Table of Contents Emissions Analysis 1) Overview……………………………………………………………… 4 2) Purpose and Need…………………………………………………….. 5 3) Connecticut PM2.5 Attainment Maintenance Area ………………… .. 11 4) Interagency Consultation…………………………………….…….…. 12 5) Public Consultation……………………………………..……………. 13 6) PM2.5 Emission Analysis……………………………………….… .… 13 7) Connecticut PM2.5 Regional Emissions Analysis Components……. 15 8) Annual Inventories for PM2.5…………………………………….… .. 15 9) VMT and Emission Analysis…………………………………………. 16 10) Analysis Results…………………………………………………..…. 37 11) Conclusion…………………………………………………………… 38 3 List of Tables Table 1: Adequate Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets – MOVES2010b……………………. 14 Table 2: List of Connecticut Network Changes ……………………………………………. 17 Table 3: Direct PM 2.5 and NOx Emissions Budget Test Results (tons per year) …………… 38 List of Figures Figure 1: Connecticut Portion of the NY -NJ -CT PM 2.5 Attainment/Maintenance Area…… … 10 List of Appendices Appendix A: Interagency Consultation Meeting Minutes……………………………………… 39 Appendix B: PM 2.5 and NOx Precursor Emission Outputs By Analysis Year ………………… . 43 Appendix C: PM 2.5 Input Files to MOVES2010b ……………………………………………… . 45 Appendix D: Acronyms ……………………………… ………… ………….. …… …………….. 85 4 Regional Emissions Analysis 1) OVERVIEW In March 2007, the Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) in Connecticut proposed to update their Long Range Transportation Plans (LRTPs). These revisions to Connecticut’s LRTPs required a new multi -state transportation conformity determination for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5). Therefore, the November 2006 NY -NJ -CT PM 2.5 non -attainment area conformity determination was revised to reflect emission projections from the new or revised, non -exempt projects in Connecticut’s 2007 -2035 LRTPs. On April 17, 2007, the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (CTDEEP) submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) its State Implementation Plan (SIP) Revision for Establishment of Interim Progress for the Fine Particle National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) and early fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) transportation conformity emission budgets. The SIP revision identified year 2009 annual direct PM 2.5 and annual nitrogen oxides (NOx) Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEBs) associated with the Interim/Early Progress SIP. The annual 2009 MVEBs for the Connecticut portion of the New York -Northern New Jersey -Long Island, NY -NJ -CT PM 2.5 Area were 360 tons per year of direct PM 2.5 and 18,279 tons per year of NOx. 1 These emissions budgets were found adequate as of June 20, 2007 and were approved into the Connecticut SIP on August 30, 2007. The annual 2009 motor vehicle emissions budgets for the Connecticut portion of the New York – Northern New Jersey -Long Island, NY -NJ -CT PM 2.5 Area were determined adequate through a May 24, 2007 letter from Anne E. Arnold, Manager Air Quality Planning Unit, EPA New England Regional Office to Anne Gobin, Chief CTDEEP and a June 5, 2009 Federal Register Notice of Adequacy. The adequacy process made the MVEBs effective June 20, 2007 for transportation conformity determinations. The annual 2009 motor vehicle emissions budgets for the Connecticut portion of the New York – Northern New Jersey -Long Island, NY -NJ -CT PM 2.5 Area were approved into the Connecticut SIP through a direct final rulemaking Federal Register on August 30, 2007 (72 FR 50029). This SIP element “2009 Early Progress Direct PM 2.5 and NOx Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets (MVEBs) for Transportation Conformity Purposes; Connecticut; New York -Northern New Jersey -Long Island, NY -NJ -CT PM 2.5 Area” became effective on October 29, 2007. On December 14, 2009, EPA’ s final rule designating areas for the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS became effective. This Air Quality Conformity analysis is being prepared to meet both the 1997 Annual PM 2.5 NAAQS and the 2006 24 -hour PM 2.5 NAAQS. 1 Letter from U.S. EPA to Anne Gobin, Chief CTDEP, dated May 24, 2007. 5 This report was prepared to document the emissions analysis that was completed to evaluate Fiscal Year 2015 -2018 Conformity of the Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) Amendments and the 2015 LRTPs to the SIP for air quality. This submittal incorporates the FY 2015 – 2018 STIP and 2015 LRT Ps from Connecticut’s Regional Planning Organizations (R PO), and the 2017 and 2025 MOVES2010b emissions budgets deemed adequate by EPA and effective as of February 20, 2013 2. EPA’s guidance for maintenance plans calls for a demonstration of continued compliance by showing that future emissions during the maintenance period will not exceed the level of emission in the attainment inventory. The end of the maintenance period was established as 2025, consistent with the CAA section 175A(a) requirement that the plan provide for maintenance of the NAAQS for at least 10 years after EPA formally approves the redesignation request. Emission estimates were developed for direct PM 2.5, as well as for the most important PM 2.5 precursor NOx. Emissions are projected to decrease from the levels in the 2007 attainment inventory through the end of the maintenance period in 2025, including in the selected interim year of 2017, thus providing for continuing maintenance of the NAAQS. The report is submitted to satisfy the requirements of the SIP, as revised. 2) PURPOSE AND NEED a – What is Transportation Conformity? Transportation Conformity is the process, established by joint guidance from the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that ensures that transportation investments will contribute to improving air quality in areas where concentrations of certain pollutants exceed national air quality standards. Transportation conformity as it currently exists emerged from the passage of environmental and transportation legislation in the early 1990s (Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 and the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991). EPA promulgated a transportation conformity rule initially in 1993. The latest amendment to the transportation conformity rule, Transportation Conformity Rule, Amendments to Implement Provisions Contained in the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users, Final Rule was published January 24, 2008 (73 FR 4420). Other recent conformity rules related to particulate matter include: PM 2.5 and PM 10 Hot -Spot Analyses in Project -Level Transportation Conformity Determinations for the New PM 2.5 and 2 Federal Register, February 15, 2013. EPA -R01 -OAR -2013 -0020; A-1-FRL -9776 -2 Adequacy Status of Motor Vehicles Emission Budgets for Transportation Conformity Purposes; Connecticut http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR – 2013 -02 -05/pdf/2013 -02492.pdf 6 Existing PM 10 National Ambient Air Quality Standards; Final Rule March 10, 2006 (71 FR 12468); Transportation Conformity Rule Amendments for the New PM 2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standard: PM 2.5 Precursors; Final Rule May 6, 2005 (70 FR 24280), [Note: On June 1, 2005, (70 FR 31354), EPA published a Final Rule correction effective June 6, 2005 for Transportation Conformity Rule Amendments for the New PM 2.5National Ambient Air Quality Standard: PM 2.5 Precursors ]; and, Transportation Conformity Rule Amendments for the New 8-hour Ozone and PM 2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standards and Miscellaneous Revisions for Existing Areas; Transportation Conformity Rule Amendments: Response to Court Decision and Additional Rule Changes; Final Rule July 1, 2004 (69 FT 40004). Recently EPA published Transportation Conformity Rule PM 2.5 and PM 10 Amendments, Final Rule March 24, 2010 (75 FR 14259 -14285). Transportation Conformity rulemaking actions can be found on EPA’s Office of Transportation and Air Quality web site at URL address: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/trasconf/conf -regs.htm Transportation conformity works in the following way:  EPA establishes National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) based on public health research. The standards set maximum concentrations of six criteria pollutants in the ambient (outdoor) air.  EPA designates parts of the country where the NAAQS are exceeded as a “non – attainment area.” States that have non -attainment areas within their boundaries are required to submit State Implementation Plans (SIPs) to EPA to demonstrate how the non -attainment areas will improve their air quality and meet the NAAQS in the timeframe specified by the Clean Air Act.  Non -attainment areas must conform their transportation plans, programs and projects to their area’s motor vehicle emissions budget that is contained within its SIP. If a state does not yet have SIP emissions budgets in place, interim emission tests must be passed to show conformity. Under the Conformity Rules, the following test for PM 2.5 and NOx must be met:  TEST: Emissions from future Action Scenarios from 2017 on, must be less than the 2017 Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets  TEST: Emissions from future Action Scenarios from 2025 on, must be less than the 2025 Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets 7 To do this, MPOs use a model created by the EPA that applies emission factors to the region’s vehicle fleet. These emission factors are combined with vehicle miles traveled data, which is generated by an MPO’s travel demand model. The travel demand model uses the region’s highway network, estimated travel conditions and demographic data to estimate where trips begin and end. It is important to note that the transportation conformity determination is based on the mix of new and existing projects and the current infrastructure. Some projects, particularly highway capacity expansions, may be individually deleterious to air quality but are offset by beneficial initiatives such as new transit projects and engineering improvements that mitigate local congestion or reduce vehicular travel. The conformity regulations recognize this balance between projects that increase and reduce emissions by requiring that MPOs demonstrate that the overall set of investments moves the region toward cleaner air, in keeping with EPA policies. b – Background on Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 ) Fine particulate matter, also called PM 2.5 , is a mixture of microscopic solids and liquid droplets suspended in air, where the size of the particles is equal to or less than 2.5 micrometers (about one -thirtieth the diameter of a human hair). Fine particles can be emitted directly (such as smoke from a fire, or as a component of automobile exhaust) or be formed indirectly in the air from power plant, industrial and mobile source emissions of gases such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. The health effects associated with exposure to fine particles are serious. Scientific studies have shown significant associations between elevated fine particle levels and premature death. Effects associated with fine particle exposure include aggravation of respiratory and cardiovascular disease (as indicated by increased hospital admissions, emergency room visits, absences from school or work, and restricted activity days), lung disease, decreased lung function, asthma attacks, and certain cardiovascular problems such as heart attacks and cardiac arrhythmia. While fine particles are unhealthy for anyone to breathe, people with heart or lung disease, asthmatics, older adults, and children are especially at risk. c – PM 2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standards In July 1997, EPA issued NAAQS for PM 2.5 , designed to protect the public from exposure to PM 2.5 at levels that may cause health problems. The standards include an annual standard set at 15 micrograms per cubic meter, based on the three year average of annual PM 2.5 concentrations and a 24 -hour standard of 65 micrograms per cubic meter based on the three – 8 year average of 24 -hour concentrations. In general, areas need to meet both standards to be considered to attain PM 2.5 NAAQS. Areas not meeting the PM 2.5 NAAQS are called PM 2.5 non -attainment areas. These areas have had or contributed to PM 2.5 levels higher than allowed under the NAAQS. Non -attainment areas are subject to transportation conformity, through which local transportation and air quality officials coordinate planning efforts to ensure that transportation projects do not hinder an area’s ability to reach its clean air goals. Transportation conformity requirements become effective one year after an area is designated as a non -attainment area. EPA issued official designations for the PM 2.5 standard on December 17, 2004 and made modifications in April 2005. On April 5, 2005, designations under the national air quality standards for fine particle pollution or PM 2.5 became effective. Therefore, by April 4, 2006, all PM 2.5 non -attainment areas were required to implement transportation conformity. Under the EPA designation, non -attainment areas are required to meet the PM 2.5 NAAQS as soon as possible, but no later than 2010. EPA may grant attainment date extensions of up to five years in areas with more severe PM 2.5 problems and where emissions control measures are not available or feasible. EPA has determined that meeting the PM 2.5 NAAQS nationwide will annually prevent at least 15,000 premature deaths; 75,000 cases of chronic bronchitis; 10,000 hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular disease; hundreds of thousands of occurrences of aggravated asthma; and 3.1 million person -days of missed work due to symptoms related to particle pollution exposure. On April 17, 2007, Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection submitted a SIP Revision for 2009 Early Progress Direct PM 2.5 and NO x Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets for Transportation Conformity Purposes; Connecticut; New York -Northern New Jersey -Long Island, NY -NJ -CT PM 2.5 Area. (See http://www.regulations.govsearch on docket number EPA -R01 -OAR – 2007 -0373). States with designated PM 2.5 non -attainment areas had to submit SIPs that outline how they will meet the PM 2.5 NAAQS within three years of April 5, 2005. On November 18, 2008 CTDEEP submitted a SIP Revision “Attainment Demonstration for the 1997 Annual PM 2.5 National Ambient Air Quality Standard for the Connecticut portion of the New York -Northern New Jersey -Long Island, NY -NJ -CT PM 2.5 Non -attainment Area”. EPA determined Connecticut’s PM 2.5 attainment demonstration SIP to be administratively and technically complete on January 8, 2009. 9 On October 17, 2006, EPA issued a final rule which tightened the 24 -hour PM 2.5 NAAQS from the 1997 level of 65 micrograms per cubic meter (ug/m 3) to 35 ug/m 3 (71FR61144). In this final rule, EPA retained the 1997 annual PM 2.5 NAAQS of 15.0 ug/m 3. EPA’s final rule designating non -attainment areas for the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS, published in the Federal Register on November 13, 2009, was effective December 14, 2009. A MPO and the U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S.DOT) must make a conformity determination with regard to the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS for the metropolitan transportation plan and TIP within one year after the effective date of the initial non -attainment designation for this NAAQS, as stated in 40CFR Part 93, “Transportation Conformity Rule PM 2.5 and PM 10 Amendments; Final Rule”, dated March 24, 2010. On June 22, 2012, CTDEEP submitted a “PM 2.5 Redesignation/Maintenance State Implementation Plan” which established new Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets for 2017 and 2025 using new EPA required software, MOVES 2010b. These budgets were deemed adequate by EPA and effective as of February 20, 2013. Monitoring data show that the NY -NJ -CT multi -state area has achieved compliance with both the 1997 annual and 2006 24 -hour PM 2.5 NAAQS since 2009. On November 15, 2010, EPA published a formal determination that the NY -NJ -CT multi -state area had achieved measured attainment of the 1997 annual PM 2.5 NAAQS. EPA published a similar finding for the 2006 24 – hour PM 2.5 NAAQS on December 31, 2012. DEEP monitoring data also indicate that Connecticut complies with the 2012 annual NAAQS. On June 22, 2012, DEEP formally submitted to the EPA, the final PM2.5 redesignation request and maintenance plan State Implementation Plan (SIP) for Connecticut’s portion of the NY -NJ – CT PM 2.5 nonattainment area. The plan demonstrated that Connecticut’s air quality met both the 1997 annual and the 2006 24 -hour PM 2.5 NAAQS due to a combination of national, regional and local control measures implemented to reduce emissions and presented a maintenance plan that ensures continued attainment through the year 2025. On September 24, 2013, EPA published its approval of the PM 2.5 redesignation request, establishing October 24, 2013 as the effective date of redesignation to attainment/maintenance for Connecticut’s portion of the NY – NJ -CT area for both the 1997 annual and 2006 24 -hour PM 2.5 NAAQS. This report was prepared to show conformity for the 1997 Annual PM 2.5 NAAQS and the 2006 PM 2.5 24 -hour NAAQS by meeting new MOVES2010b 2017 and 2025 motor vehicle budgets as discussed above. The Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) within this area are as follow s: 10 1. SouthWestern Region Metropolitan Planning Organization (SWRMPO) 2. Housatonic Valley Metropolitan Planning Organization (HVMPO) 3. Central Naugatuck Valley Metropolitan Planning Organization (CNVMPO) 4. Valley portion of GBVMPO 5. Greater Bridgeport portion of GBVMPO 6. South Central Metropolitan Planning Organization (SCMPO) Figure 1 below shows the Connecticut counties included in the PM 2.5 attainment/maintenance area . Figure 1: Connecticut Portion of the NY -NJ -CT PM 2.5 Attainment/Maintenance Area 11 d – PM 10 Attainment/Maintenance Area EPA previously designated the City of New Haven as Nonattainment with respect to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for particulate matter with a nominal diameter of ten microns or less (PM 10). The PM 10 Nonattainment status in New Haven was a local problem stemming from activities of several businesses located in the Stiles Street section of the City. Numerous violations in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s of Section 22a -174 -18 (Fugitive Dust) of CTDEEP regulations in that section of the city led to a nonattainment designation (CTDEEP, 1994: Narrative Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, State Implementation Plan Revision For PM 10, March 1994). Corrective actions were subsequently identified in the State Implementation Plan and implemented, with no violations of the PM 10 NAAQS since the mid -1990’s. All construction activities undertaken in the City of New Haven are required to be performed in compliance with Section 22a -174 -18 (Control of Particulate “Emissions”) of the CTDEEP regulations. All reasonable available control measures must be implemented during construction to mitigate particulate matter emissions, including wind -blown fugitive dust, mud and dirt carry out, and re -entrained fugitive emission from mobile equipment. The projects contained in the STIP and Plans, designa ted within the City of New Ha ve n, are expected to ha ve little effect on the overall projecte d ve hicle miles of travel for the area and are not expected to cause signifi can t addi tional airborne pa rticula te matter to be ge nerated. The transpo rtation projects ini tiated in New Haven are not designed to enhan ce deve lop me nt in the area. Th ere fore, the project s und ert ake n in this area will not have a detr ime ntal effect on PM 10 in New Haven. On Octob er 13, 2005, EPA publish ed in the Federal Register (Vol. 70, No. 197), approval of a requ est by CTDEE P for a Limited M ain tenan ce Plan and redesigna tion of the New Haven Nona ttain me nt Area to Att ain me nt for the National Ambient Air Quality Standa rds for PM 10. This direct final rule became effect ive on December 12, 2005. As with limited maintenance plans for other pollutants, emissions budgets are considered to satisfy transportation conformity’s “budget test”. However, future “project level” conformity determination may require “hot spot” PM 10 analyses for new transportation projects with significant diesel traffic in accordance with EPA’s Final Rule for “PM 2.5 and PM 10 Hot -Spot Analyses in Project -level Transportation Conformity Rule PM 2.5 and PM 10 Amendments; Final Rule (75 FR 4260, March 24, 2010) which became effective on April 23, 2010. 3) CONNECTICUT PM 2.5 ATTAINMENT MAINTENANCE AREA The New Jersey – New York – Connecticut multi -state non -attainment area was designated by 12 EPA because this region’s air quality fails to meet the annual PM 2.5 NAAQS. As EPA New England has determined the MOVES2010b 2017 and 2025 motor vehicle emissions budgets submitted on June 22, 2012 to be adequate for transportation conformity purposes, the emissions analysis in this report will be limited to these areas only and the budgets effective as of February 20, 2013. The non -attainment areas under the 2006 PM 2.5 24 -hour NAAQS are the same as under the 1997 PM 2.5 non -attainments areas. Since the 1997 PM 2.5 non -attainment area has an adequate budget, EPA states that to be consistent with the Clean Air Act, the areas must meet the budget test for the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS using existing adequate or approved SIP budgets for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS. Effective October 24, 2013, the Connecticut portion of the New Jersey – New York – Connecticut multi -state PM 2.5 Non -Attainment Areas were redesignated as Attainment Maintenance. 4) INTERAGENCY CONSULTATION An Interagency Consultation Meeting was held on A p r i l 1 9 , 2 0 1 6 to review the air quality codes for projects funded in the regions ’ Transportation Improvement Plans and the 201 5 Long Range Transportation Plans. The meeting also discussed the analysis years to be modeled. The project Air Quality coding is as follows: CC – Conformity Analysis Completed M – Modeled in the Department’s highway or transit networks NM – Requires modeling and will be included into the Department’s highway and transit networks prior to conformity analysis NRS –a highway or transit project on a facility that does not serve regional needs or is not normally included in the regional travel simulation model and does not fit into an exempt project category in Table 2 or 3 of the Final Rule (40 CFR 93). RS – Regionally significant refers to a transportation project in the TIP and/or STIP (other than an exempt project) that is on a facility which serves regional transportation needs (such as access to and from the area outside of the region, major activity centers in the regions, major planned development such as new retail malls, sports complexes, etc., or transportation terminals as well as most terminals themselves) and would normally be included in the modeling of a metropolitan area’s transportation network, including at a minimum all principal arterial highways and all fixed guide -way transit facilities that offer an alternative to regional highway travel (40 CFR 93.101). Once a project is 13 identified as regionally significant, it must be included in the analysis regardless of funding source. Exempt Project – a project listed in Table 2 or 3 of the Final Rule (40 CFR 93) that primarily enhances safety or aesthetics, maintains mass transit, continues current levels of ridesharing, or builds bicycle and pedestrian facilities . X6 – Project exempt from the requirement to determine conformity under 40 CFR 93.126 X7 – Project exempt form regional emissions analysis requirements under 40 CFR 93.127 X8 – Traffic synchronization projects may be approved, funded and implemented without satisfying conformity requirements under 40 CFR 93.128 It was agreed upon that the 2011 vehicle registration data file would be utilized for this Conformity Determination and CTDEEP and CTDOT staff would discuss update of this file at a May 2016 meeting. A copy of the minutes of the Interagency Consultation Meeting is included in Appendix A, as well as a list of attendees and call -in participants. The final emissions analysis was prepared and the report was distributed for the 30 -day public comment period. 5) PUBLIC CONSULTATION As required by the Final Rule, the transportation conformity process must include public consultation on the emissions analysis and conformity determination for PM2.5 determinations. This includes posting of relevant documentation and analysis on a “clearinghouse” webpage maintained through the interagency consultation process. All MPOs in the Connecticut PM 2.5 non -attainment area must provide thirty -day public comment periods and address any comments received. For this PM2.5 transportation conformity determination, all Connecticut MPOs will hold a thirty -day public comment period. 6) PM 2.5 EMISSIONS ANALYSIS As stated above, EPA has found that the 2017 and 2025 MVEBs in the June 22, 2012 Connecticut SIP revision are adequate for transportation conformity purposes and effective as of February 20, 2013. Table 1 on the following page shows the MOVES2010 MVEBs for 2017 and 2025. 14 Table 1: Adequate Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets – MOVE2014a Direct PM 2 .5 NOx (Tons/Year) (Tons/Year) Year 2017 MVEBs for the Connecticut 575.8 12,791.8 portion of the New York – Northern New Jersey -, Long Island, NY -NJ -CT PM 2.5 Area Year 2025 MVEBs for the Connecticut 516.0 9,728.1 portion of the New York – Northern New Jersey -, Long Island, NY -NJ -CT PM 2.5 Area The PM 2.5 budget emissions are the amount to which projected future emissions resulting from implementation of Plans and TIPs will be compared. Per 75 FR 14271, as the non -attainment boundary for the 2006 Connecticut portion of the NY – NJ -CT PM 2.5 Non -attainment Area is exactly the same as the 1997 PM 2.5 boundary, the budget test for the 2006 PM 2.5 NAAQS must use the existing adequate or approved SIP budgets for the 1997 PM 2.5 NAAQS. EPA regulations require that emissions analysis be conducted for specific analysis years. Section 93.119(g) of the Final Rule states that these analysis years must include:  Attainment or near term year  The last (horizon) year of the regions’ long range transportation plan  An intermediate year or years such that the analysis years are no more than 10 years apart The attainment year is based upon the Clean Air Act section 172(a)(2) which states that the attainment year for the 2006 PM 2.5 areas will be 2014, five years after the effective date of 15 designations (December 14, 2009). The year 2017 is also within five years (near -term) of the year in which the analysis is being performed (2015). Furthermore, because this attainment/maintenance area includes multiple MPOs, the last year of all of the MPOs’ Plans must be included as analysis years. Within the Connecticut PM 2.5 attainment area, the plan horizon year is 2040. Intermediate years of 2025 and 2035 have been selected so that no two – analysis years are more than 10 years apart. Therefore, the analysis years for this conformity determination are 2017, 2025, 2035 and 2040. 7) CONNECTICUT PM 2.5 REGIONAL EMISSIONS ANALYSIS COMPONENTS PM 2.5 emissions can result from both direct and indirect sources. Gasoline and diesel on -road vehicles emit both direct PM 2.5 and other gases that react in the air to form PM 2.5 . Direct PM 2.5 emissions can result from particles in exhaust fumes, from brake and tire wear, from road dust kicked up by vehicles, and from highway and transit construction. Indirect PM 2.5 emissions can result from one or more of several exhaust components , including nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), sulfur oxides (SOx), and ammonia (NH 3). For the regional analysis of direct PM 2.5 emissions, EPA has ruled that both exhaust and brake/tire wear must be included. However, EPA has also ruled that emissions analysis for direct PM 2.5 should include road dust only if road dust is found to be a significant contributor to PM 2.5 by either the EPA Regional Administrator or a state air quality agency. For the Connecticut PM 2.5 non -attainment area, neither the EPA Regional Administrators nor the state air quality agency have found that road dust is a significant PM 2.5 contributor. For the regional analysis of indirect PM 2.5 emissions (also called PM 2.5 precursors), EPA has identified four potential transportation -related PM 2.5 precursors: NOx, VOCs, SOx, and NH 3. The only indirect PM 2.5 component that needs to be considered in the Connecticut PM 2.5 non – attainment area is NOx. 8) ANNUAL INVENTORIES FOR PM 2.5 Because the multi -state PM 2.5 non -attainment area does not meet the annual PM 2.5 NAAQS, the emissions analysis for PM 2.5 must consider annual emissions. Guidance from EPA (dated August 10, 2005) presents four possible options for developing an annual inventory before a SIP is developed: using a single air quality model output to represent daily emissions for the entire year; running the air quality model to represent two seasons; running the air quality model to represent four seasons; or running the air quality model to represent twelve individual months. Analysis showed that there is a negligible difference between the two -season approach and the twelve -month approach for the Connecticut PM 2.5 non -attainment area and was therefore determined that the two season approach would be used. 16 9) VEHICLE MILES OF TRAVEL AND EMISSIONS ANALYSIS Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) estimates were developed from the Connecticut Department of Transportation’s (CTDOT’s) statewide network -based travel model supplemented by off -model analysis. The 2015 travel model network, to the extent practical, represents all state highways and major connecting non -state streets and roads as well as the rail, local bus and express bus systems that currently exist. Future highway networks for 2018, 2020, 2025 and 2030 and transit networks for 2015, 2016, 2020, 2030 and 2040 were built by adding STIP, TIP and LRTP projects (programmed for opening after 2015) to the 2015 network. These networks were used to run travel models and conduct emissions analysis for the years 2017, 2025, 2035 and 2040. Table 2 lists the projects for each model analysis year for which network changes were required. 17 TABLE 2 LIST OF NETWORK CHANGES 2015 NETWORK CHANGES MPO LANES PROJECT NUMBER DESCRIPTION FROM TO HIGHWAY NAME TOWN IMPROVEMENT CAPIT OL REGION 0063 -XXXX Project enhancing Union Station as a regional intermodal transportation Hub and connecting that with the rest of downtown through improved transit, pedestrian and biking infrastructure Varies INTERMODAL TRIANGLE HARTFORD 0077 -0215 Extension of existing Hillside Road to Route 44. Congressional earmark 0/0 1/1 HILLSIDE ROAD MANSFIELD CCD 2015, TIP NEW ROAD 0171 -0305 From New Britain to Hartford, District 1 funding Hartford and New Britain N/A CT FASTRAK NEW BRITAIN -HARTFORD CCD 8/14/2015, TIP NEW BUS SERVICE CENTRAL NAUGATUCK VALLEY 0151 -XXXX Boyden Street Extension Construct new road from Bucks Hill Road to North Main Street 0/0 1/1 BOYDEN STREET WATERBURY Long Range Plan EXTENSION SOUTH CENTRAL 0092 -0614 Reconstruction of Route 34 to at grade Boulevard N/A ROUTE 34 Long Range Plan NEW HAVEN BOULEVARD 0106 -0125 Project to extend Edison Road from its current terminus to Marsh Hill Road, a length of approximately 2,200 feet 0/0 1/1 EDISON ROAD ORANGE EXTEND 18 SOUTH WESTERN 0102 -0278 Add auxiliary lanes between Int. 14 and 15 (NB and SB) on I -95 3/3 4/4 I-95 NORWALK CCD 12 -1-2014 OPERATIONAL LANES 0135 -0310 Removal of automobile bridge over the Mill River 1/1 0/0 WEST MAIN STREET CCD 2014, TIP STAMFORD BRIDGE REPLACEMENT 19 2016 NETWORK CHANGES NEW MPO DESCRIPTION LANES PROJECT NUMBER FROM TO HIGHWAY NAME TOWN IMPROVEMENT LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY 0478 -0077 New Estuary Transit District bus service starting in the center of Madison that will travel along Route 1, Route 81, and Route 154 to downtown Middletown. N/A MADISON -MIDDLETOWN NEW BUS SERVICE CCD 2016 TIP SOUTH CENTRAL N/A 0478 -0077 New Estuary Transit District bus service starting in the center of Madison that will travel along Route 1, Route 81, and Route 154 to downtown Middletown. MADISON -MIDDLETOWN NEW BUS SERVICE CCD 2016 TIP HOUSATONIC VALLEY 0416 -0076 New HARTransit bus service loop between the Interstate 84 Exit 2 Park & Ride, Belimo, and the Matrix Corporate Center. N/A MATRIX COMMUTER DANBURY NEW BUS SERVICE CCD 2016, TIP 20 2018 NETWORK CHANGES REGION DESCRIPTION LANES PROJECT NUMBER FROM TO HIGHWAY NAME TOWN CAPITAL REGION 0131 -0190 Remove Bridge Number 00518 Reconstruct 10/322 Intersection 1/1 0/0 ROUTE 10 SOUTHINGTON CCD 11/2017, TIP BRIDGE REMOVAL GREATER BRIDGEPORT 0015 -TMP1 Realignment of Lafayette Circle and establishment of bidirectional traffic on Fairfield Avenue 0/1 1/1 LAFAYETTE CIRCLE BRIDGEPORT CCD 2017, TIP REALIGNMENT 0036 -0184 Main Street Derby from Bridge Street to Route 8 South Exit15 On/Off Ramps (Ausonio Street) 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 34 DERBY CCD 2018, TIP WIDENING HOUSATONIC VALLEY 0034 -0347 State Route 806 (Newtown Road) from Old Newtown to Plumtrees & from Eagle to Industrial Plaza, Danbury – Widening from 1 lane each direction to 2 lanes each direction 1/1 2/2 SR 806 NEWTOWN ROAD DANBURY CCD 2016, TIP SOUTH CENTRAL 0079 -XXXX Multiple lane and directional changes in the center of town. Conversion of multiple one way streets to two ways, two way streets to one way, lane reductions. VARIOUS WEST MAIN STREET MERIDEN MULTIPLE LANE CHANGES CCD 2017, TIP 0092 -0531 Q Bridge Replacement and demolition; Contract E 3/3 5/5 I-95 CCD 2016, TIP NEW HAVEN BRIDGE REPLACEMENT 21 0092 -0532 Q Bridge Replacement and demolition; Contract B 3/3 5/5 I-95 CCD 2016, TIP NEW HAVEN BRIDGE REPLACEMENT 0092 -0627 Q Bridge Replacement and demolition; Contract B2 3/3 5/5 I-95 CCD 2016, TIP NEW HAVEN BRIDGE REPLACEMENT 0092 -XXXX Removal of North Frontage Road between State Street & Orange Street 1/1 0/0 NORTH FRONTAGE ROAD NEW HAVEN CCD 2016, TIP ROADWAY REMOVAL 0100 -0175 SACKETT POINT ROAD Project to widen Sackett Point Road from 1 lane to 2 lanes 1/1 2/2 NORTH HAVEN CCD 2018, TIP WIDENING SOUTH WESTERN 0102 -0325 Addition of a through lane on Route 1 Northbound from France Street to Route 53 1/1 1/2 ROUTE 1 NORWALK CCD 2017, TIP WIDENING 0135 -0301 Reconstruction of I -95 off ramps and Atlantic Street in vicinity of Metro North Railroad Bridge No. 08012R 2/2 3/3 ATLANTIC STREET STAMFORD CCD 2018, TIP WIDENING GREATER BRIDGEPORT 0138 -0211 Addition of a through lane on Route 1 Southbound from Nobel Street to Soundview Avenue 1/1 2/1 ROUTE 1 STRATFORD CCD 2017, TIP WIDENING 22 CENTRAL NAUGATUCK VALLEY 0017 -0182 Addition of a second through lane on Route 6 Eastbound from Carol Drive to Peggy Lane 2/1 2/2 ROUTE 6 BRISTOL CCD 2018, TIP WIDENING 23 2020 NETWORK CHANGES NEW MPO DESCRIPTION LANES PROJECT NUMBER FROM TO HIGHWAY NAME TOWN IMPROVEMENT CAPITAL REGION 0051 -0259 Interchange improvements at Routes 4, 6, and 9 including a new EB C/D Roadway N/A I84/RT4/RT6 FARMINGTON BID 12 -31 -08, CCD 2019, TIP INTERCHANGE BSWY 0063 -0703 Relocation and Reconfiguration of Interchange 29 on I -91; New addtioanl lanes Rte. 15 NB from 2 to 3 lanes exit 90 to 0.5 miles beyond Exit 91 3/3 4/3 I-91, EXIT 29 HARTFORD WIDENING CCD 2020 Long Range Plan 0155 -0156 Add an Operational Lane WB between Interchanges 42 & 39A; Add an Operational Lane EB between Interchanges 40 & 41 3/3 4/4 I-84 WEST HARTFORD OPERATIONAL LANES CCD 2018 CENTRAL NAUGATUCK VALLEY 0151 -0273 Interstate 84 2/2 3/3 I-84 CCD 11/2020, TIP WATERBURY WIDENING 0151 -XXXX TIGER Grant includes various roadway changes including reconstruction/extension of Jackson Street. Extension will meet at Freight Street and continue to West Main N/A 1/1 DOWNTOWN AREA WATERBURY ADDED ROADWAY CCD 2019, Long Range Plan 24 GREATER BRIDGEPORT 0015 -HXXX Reconstruct and widen Route 130 from Stratford Avenue bridge to Yellow Mill bridge 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 130 BRIDGEPORT Long Range Plan WIDENING 0124 -0165 **As of 2/15/2011current scope from consultant is spot improvements for from Swan Avenue to Franklin Street Project Manager**Bank Street from West Street to North Main St is full scope being reviewed by consultant 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 67 SEYMOUR MAJOR WIDENING Long Range Plan 0124 -XXXX Between Interchange 22 and 23 to improve access N/A ROUTE 8 Long Range Plan SEYMOUR INTERCHANGE 0124 -XXXX ROUTE 8 Realign interchange with new extension of Derby Road N/A SEYMOUR Long Range Plan INTERCHANGE 0126 -XXXX Interchaneg 11 – Construct new SB entrance ramp, Widen Bridgeport Avenue N/A ROUTE 8 SHELTON Long Range Plan MAJOR WIDENING 0126 -XXXX ROUTE 714 Between Huntington Avenue and Constitution Boulevard 1/1 2/2 SHELTON Long Range Plan MAJOR WIDENING 0138 -0248 Recontsruct Interchange 33 on I -95 to provide full interchange from partial to full diamond interchange N/A I-95, EXIT 33 STRATFORD INTERCHANGE RECONSTRUCTION CCD 2020, Long Range Plan 25 HOUSATONIC VALLEY 0008 -XXXX Operational Improvements on White Street at Locust Avenue and Eighth Avenue 1/1 1/2 WHITE STREET DANBURY CCD 2020, Long Range Plan WIDENING 0096 -0204 Addition of a through lane on Route 34 EB from Wasserman Way to Toddy Hill Road. Addition of I – 84 WB and EB on -ramp from Route 34 WB 1/1 2/1 ROUTE 34 NEWTOWN WIDENING CCD 2020, TIP SOUTH CENTRAL 0092 -XXXX ROUTE 69 Intersection Imrpovements at Route 69 and Pond Lily Avenue N/A NEW HAVEN Long Range Plan INTERSECTION IMPROVEMENTS 26 2025 NETWORK CHANGES NEW MPO DESCRIPTION LANES PROJECT NUMBER FROM TO HIGHWAY NAME TOWN IMPROVEMENT CAPITAL REGION 0042 -0317 Removal of Cambridge Street to Route 2 WB On – Ramp and Sutton Avenue to Route 2 EB Off -Ramp. New through lane on Main Street NB at the approach to the Route 2 WB Off -Ramp. 0/1 0/2 ROUTE 2 EAST HARTFORD WIDENING CCD 2021, TIP LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY 0082 -0316 Reconfiguration and realignment of Route 17 On – Ramp onto Route 9 from Main Street. Removal of the Harbor Drive to Route 9 NB On -Ramp N/A ROUTE 17 MIDDLETOWN INTERCHANGE RECONFIGURATION CCD 2021, TIP SOUTH WESTERN 0102 -0358 Reconfiguration of the interchanges between Route 7, Route 15, and Main Avenue. These changes include multiple new and reconfigured on and off ramps designed to allow access to and from all three major roadways. N/A ROUTES 7 & 15 NORWALK INTERCHANGE RECONFIGURATION CCD 2025, TIP 27 2030 NETWORK CHANGES NEW MPO DESCRIPTION LANES PROJECT NUMBER FROM TO HIGHWAY NAME TOWN IMPROVEMENT CAPITAL REGION VARIOUS TOWNS New Haven/Hartford/Springfield Rail Service Governor’s Transportation Initiative N/A NEW COMMUTER RAIL Long Range Plan 0109 -XXXX New Britain Avenue Cooke Street to Hooker Street 1/1 2/2 PLAINVILLE Long Range Plan ADD LANE CENTRAL NAUGATUCK VALLEY 0080 -0128 I-84, Routes 63 -64 Add auxiliary lanes at Int. 17 and on Routes 63/64 CCD 2030 1/1 2/2 MIDDLEBURY/WATERBURY Long Range Plan WIDENING GREATER BRIDGEPORT 0036 -0179 ROUTE 8 Interchange 18 – Construct New NB entrance ramp. ANSONIA Long Range Plan N/A INTERCHANGE 0036 -XXXX Route 8 Interchange 16 and 17; Construct new NB ramps. Close old ramps N/A ROUTE 8 DERBY Long Range Plan INTERCHANGE 0126 -XXXX Interchange 14 – Construct new SB entrance ramp N/A ROUTE 8 Long Range Plan SHELTON INTERCHANGE 28 HOUSATONIC VALLEY 0018 -0124 South of Old State Road to Route 133 1/1 2/2 US 202 Long Range Plan BROOKFIELD WIDENING 0034 -0288 From Kenosia Avenue easterly to I -84 (Exit 4) 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 6 Long Range Plan DANBURY ADD LANES 0034 -XXXX From I -84 (Exit 2) East to Kenosia Avenue 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 6 Long Range Plan DANBURY ADD LANES 0034 -XXXX ROUTE 37 From Route I -84 (Exit 6) Northerly to Jeanette Street 1/1 2/2 DANBURY Long Range Plan ADD LANES 0034 -XXXX Between Interchanges 3 and 4.Between Interchanges 12 and 13 3/3 4/4 I-84 DANBURY, NEWTOWN, SOUTHBURY Long Range Plan ADD LANES 0034 -XXXX Widen Kenosia Avenue from Backus Avenue to Vicinity of Lake Kenosia 1/1 2/2 DANBURY ADD LANES Long Range Plan 0034 -XXXX Widen Backus Avenue from Kenosia Avenue to Miry Brook Road 1/1 2/2 DANBURY ADD LANES Long Range Plan 0034 -XXXX From South Street northerly to Boughton Street; 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 53 Long Range Plan DANBURY ADD LANES 29 0034 -XXXX ROUTE 37 From Route 53 (Main Street) northerly to I -84 (Exit 6) 1/1 2/2 DANBURY Long Range Plan ADD LANES 0096 -XXXX New Road across Old Fairfield Hills Hospital Campus, From Route 6 South to Route 860 0/0 1/1 NEWTOWN NEW ROAD Long Range Plan ADD LANES SOUTH CENTRAL 0014 -XXXX East Haven Town Line to Alps Road (Echlin Road Private) 2/2 2/3 ROUTE 1 Long Range Plan BRANFORD WIDENING 0014 -XXXX Route 146 to Cedar Street 2/2 2/3 ROUTE 1 Long Range Plan BRANFORD WIDENING 0014 -XXXX Cedar Street to East Main 1/1 1/2 ROUTE 1 Long Range Plan BRANFORD WIDENING 0014 -XXXX East Main to 1 -95 Exit 55 1/1 1/2 ROUTE 1 Long Range Plan BRANFORD WIDENING 0014 -XXXX I-95 Exit 55 to Leetes Island Road 1/1 1/2 ROUTE 1 Long Range Plan BRANFORD WIDENING 0059 -XXXX Bullard Road extension to Route 77 0/0 1/1 BULLARD RD Long Range Plan GUILFORD WIDENING 30 0059 -XXXX State Street to Tanner Marsh Road 1/1 1/2 ROUTE 1 Long Range Plan GUILFORD WIDENING 0061 -XXXX Washington Avenue to Route 40 2/2 2/3 ROUTE 10 Long Range Plan HAMDEN WIDENING 0061 -XXXX Route 40 to Todd Street 2/2 2/3 ROUTE 10 Long Range Plan HAMDEN WIDENING 0061 -XXXX Todd Street to Shepard Avenue 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 10 Long Range Plan HAMDEN WIDENING 0061 -XXXX River Street to Cheshire Town Line 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 10 Long Range Plan HAMDEN WIDENING 0061 -XXXX Olds Street (Hamden) to Sackett Point Road 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 5 Long Range Plan HAMDEN, NORTH HAVEN WIDENING 0073 -XXXX New Rail Station near Salemme Lane in Orange N/A ORANGE CCD 2030, Long Range Plan NEW COMMUTER RAIL 0079 -XXXX Wallingford Town Line to Olive Street (Route 71) 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 5 Long Range Plan MERIDEN WIDENING 0083 -XXXX From West of Old Gate Lane to Gulf Street/Clark Street to Route 1 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 162 MILFORD Long Range Plan WIDENING 31 0092 -0649 Long Wharf access Plan Widen I -95 (in separate project), Eliminate Long Wharf Drive to expand park, add new road from Long Wharf Drive VARIES NEW HAVEN Long Range Plan 0092 -XXXX From Route 63 to Landin Street 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 69 Long Range Plan NEW HAVEN, WOODBRIDGE WIDENING 0092 -XXXX From Dayton Street (NH) to Landin Street (Wdbg) 1/2 2/3 ROUTE 63 Long Range Plan NEW HAVEN, WOODBRIDGE WIDENING 0098 -XXXX From East Haven Town Line to Doral Farms Road and Route 22 to Guilford Town Line 1/1 1/2 ROUTE 80 NORTH BRANFORD Long Range Plan WIDENING 0106 -XXXX From West Haven Town Line to US 1 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 162 Long Range Plan ORANGE WIDENING 0148 -XXXX From South Orchard Street. to Ward Street and Christian Road to Meriden Town Line 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 5 WALLINGFORD Long Range Plan ROUTE 5 0148 -XXXX From Route 71 overpass South of Old Colony Road to Route 68 1/1 1/2 ROUTE 150 WALLINGFORD Long Range Plan WIDENING 0156 -XXXX Route 1 to Elm Street 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 122 Long Range Plan WEST HAVEN WIDENING 32 0156 -XXXX Campbell Avenue to Orange Town Line 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 1 Long Range Plan WEST HAVEN WIDENING 0156 -XXXX Elm Street to Greta Street 2/2 2/3 ROUTE 162 Long Range Plan WEST HAVEN WIDENING 0156 -XXXX Bull Hill Ln to Orange Town Line 1/1 2/2 ROUTE 162 Long Range Plan WEST HAVEN WIDENING VARIOUS TOWNS New Haven/Hartford/Springfield Rail Service Governor’s Transportation Initiative N/A NEW COMMUTER RAIL Long Range Plan SOUTH WESTERN 0035 -XXXX Add Lane from Stamford Exit 8 to Darien Exit 10, Operational Lane 3/3 4/4 I-95 Darien -Stamford Long Range Plan WIDENING 0102 -0269 Upgrade to full interchange at Merritt Parkway (Route 15) BID 01 -09 -08 N/A US 7/RT 15 NORWALK CCD 2030, Long Range Plan UPGRADE EXPRESSWAY 0102 -0297 East Avenue from the vicinity of the I -95 Ramps southerly to the vicinity of Van Zant Street 1/1 2/2 EAST AVE #1 NORWALK Long Range Plan WIDENING 0102 -0312 Reconstruction of Interchange 40 Merritt Parkway and Route 7 (Main Avenue). Breakout of 0102 – 0269 Phase 1 N/A ROUTE 7/15 NORWALK CCD 2030, Long Range Plan UPGRADE EXPRESSWAY 33 0102 -XXXX Express Bus/BRT between Norwalk and Greenwich N/A NORWALK -GREENWICH Long Range Plan BRT 34 2040 NETWORK CHANGES NEW MPO DESCRIPTION LANES PROJECT NUMBER FROM TO HIGHWAY NAME TOWN IMPROVEMENT GREATER BRIDGEPORT 0015 -XXXX NEW COMMUTER RAIL New Rail Station near Barnum Street in Bridgeport N/A CCD 2040 Long Range Plan 35 The PM 2.5 input file into MOVES2014a for each analysis year consisted of “annual average” scenario. All months were selected for an “annual average” evaluation . Appropriate minimum/maximum temperatures were employed, as well as annual average FUEL RVP, SPEED VMT, and DIESEL SULFUR values. Annual emission factors were obtained for each county by roadway classification. In addition, model runs incorporate the effect of the Employer Commute Options (ECO) Program in Southwest Connecticut (Fairfield County). In response to federal legislation, Connecticut has restructured the ECO program to emphasize voluntary participation, combined with positive incentives, to encourage employees to rideshare, use transit and continue to expand their trip reduction activities. In addition, the program has been made available to all employers. It is felt that this process is an effective means of achieving Connecticut’s clean air targets. Funding of this effort under the Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement (CMAQ) program is included in the TIP for FY 2015 -2018. It is estimated that this program, if fully successful, could reduce VMT and mobile source emissions by 2% in Southwest Connecticut. It should be no ted that TIP and LRTP projects, which have negligible impa ct on trip dis tribu tion and/or highway capa city, have not been incorpo rated into the network. These includ e, but are not limited to, geometric improveme nts of existing interc han ge s, sho rt sections of climbin g lan es, inter sect ion improveme nts, transit projects dealing with equip me nt for existing facilities and vehicles, and transi t operating assis tan ce . Ess entiall y, those projects that do not impa ct the trave l demand forecasts are not includ ed in the network and/or anal ysis. The network -based travel model used for this analysis is the model that CTDOT utilizes for transportation planning, programming and design requirements. This travel demand model uses demographic and land use assumptions based on the 2010 Census population and Connecticut Department of Labor 2010 employment estimates. Population and employment projections for the years 2020, 2030 and 2040 were developed by the Connecticut Department of Transportation, Travel Demand and Air Quality Modeling Unit and approved by all the regional planning agencies in early 2012. The model uses a cons train ed equilib rium app roa ch to allocate trips among links. The model was calib rated using 2013 ground coun ts and 2013 HPMS VMT data. Peak hour direct ional traffic volu me s were estimated as a perce ntage of the Aver age Daily Traffi c (ADT) on a lin k-by -lin k basis. Based on au tomatic traffic rec order data, 9.0 perce nt, 8.5 perce nt, 8.1 perce nt and 7.5 perce nt of the ADT occurs during the four highest hours of the day. A 55:45 direct ional spli t was assu me d. Hou rly volu me s were then con verte d to Serv ice Flow Levels (SFL) 36 and Volume to Capa city (V/C) ratios calcula ted as follows: SFL = DHV/PHF*N VC = SFL / C where: DHV = Direct ional Hourly Volume PHF = Peak Hour Factor = 0.9 N = Number of lanes C = Capa city of lane Peak period sp ee ds were estimated from the 2000 Highway Capa city Manual based on the design speed, facility class , area type and calcula ted V/C ratio. On the expressway system, Connecticut – based free flow speed data was available. This data was deeme d more app rop riate and sup erseded the capacity manual speed values. The exp ressway free flow speeds were upda ted in 2005. For the off – peak hours, traffic volume is not the con trollin g factor for ve hicle speed. Off -peak link speeds were based on the Highway Capa city Manual free flow sp ee ds as a function of facility class and area type. As before, Conn ect icut-bas ed speed data was subs tituted for expressway travel, where availabl e, and was also updated in 2005. Two sp ec ial cases exist in the travel demand modeling process. These are ce ntroid conn ect ors and intrazonal trips.  Centroid conn ect ors represent the local roads used to gain acce ss to the mod el network from ce nter s of activity in each traffic anal ysis zone (TAZ). A speed of 25 mph is utilized for these links.  Intrazonal trips are trips that are too short to get on to the model netw ork. VMT for intrazonal trips is calcula ted based on the siz e of each indi vidual TAZ. A speed of 20 to 24 mph is utiliz ed for peak period and 25 to 29 mph for off – peak. The Daily Vehicle Miles of Travel (DVMT) is calcula ted using a met hodolo gy based on disa ggreg ate speed and su mm arized by inventory area, fun ctional classifi cation , and sp ee d. The annual VMT and speed profiles developed by this process are then combin ed with the em ission factors from the M OVES 2014a mod el to produ ce em ission estimates for each sce na rio and time frame. M OVES 2014a PM 2.5 and NOx annual emissions by County may be found in App endix B. The M OVES 2014a input files are in App endix C. Appendix D lists various acronyms us ed in the report. In all cases the transpo rtation program and plan meets the requi red confo rm ity tests: 37  For years 2017 to 2024, Direct PM 2.5 in the Conn ect icut portion of the New York -Northern New Jer sey -Lon g Island attain me nt/main tenan ce area mus t be less than 575.8 tons per year.  For years 2017 to 2024, NOx in the Conn ect icut po rtion of the New Yo rk-Northern New Jer sey -Lon g Island attain me nt/main tenan ce area must be less than 12,791 .8 tons per year.  For year 2025 and subs equ ent ye ars, Direct PM 2.5 in the Conn ect icut po rtion of the New Yo rk-Northern New Jer sey -Lon g Island attain me nt/main tenan ce area must be less than 516.0 tons per year.  In year 2025 and subs equ ent ye ars, NOx in the Connecticut po rtion of the New York – Northern New Jer sey -Lon g Island attain me nt/main tenan ce area must be less than 9,728 .1 tons per year. This anal ysis in no way reflects the full benefit on air quality from the transpo rtation plan and program. The netw ork-bas ed modeling process is capable of assessing the impa ct of majo r new highway or transit serv ice . It does not reflect the impa ct from the many projects, which are categ oricall y exclud ed from the requi reme nt of confo rm ity. These project s includ e nu mer ous improvements to inter sect ions , which will allow traffic to flow more efficiently, thus redu cing delay, fuel usage and em issions. Includ ed in the TIP, but not reflecte d in this analysis, are many projects to main tain existing rail and bus system s. Without these project s, those system s could not offer the high level of serv ice they do. With them, the mass transi t systems fun ction more efficiently, improve saf ety, and provide a more dependable and aestheticall y app ealin g service. These ad van tage s will ret ain existing patrons and attract addi tional riders to the system . The technology to quantify the air quality benefits from these programs is not curre ntly availabl e. As shown in this anal ysis , transpo rtation emissions are declining dramaticall y and will con tinu e to do so. This is primarily due to programs such as reform ula ted fuels, enhan ce d insp ect ion and main tenan ce programs, stage two vapor recovery (area sou rce ), the low em issions vehicles (LEV) program, and the Tier 2 / Sulfur -in-Gas redu ction program. Changes in the transpo rtation system will not produce signifi can t emissions redu ctions because of the massi ve exis ting rail, bus, highway systems, and land deve lop me nt already in place. Change in these aspects is always at the margin, producing very small impacts. 10) ANALYSIS RESULTS As part of the redesignation request, the State submitted a maintenance plan as required by section 175A of the Clean Air Act. Elements of the section 175A maintenance plan include a contingency plan and an obligation to submit a subsequent maintenance plan revision as required by the Clean Air Act. The PM 2.5 maintenance plan also establishes 2017 and 2025 MVEBs for the Area. Connecticut is establishing 2017 MVEBs of 575.8 tons per year (tpy) for direct PM 2.5 and 12,791.8 tpy for NO X, and 2025 MVEBs of 516 tpy for direct PM 2.5 and 9,728.1 38 tpy for NO X, for the Southwestern CT Area for maintenance of the 1997 annual and 2006 24 – hour PM 2.5 standards. The emissions analysis results for the Connecticut portion of the New Yo rk-Northern New Jer sey -Lon g Island multi -state attainment/maintenance area are presented in Tables 3 and 4 below. Table 3: Direct PM2.5 and NOx Emission Budget Test Results (tons per year ) Year Series 30G Budgets Difference Direct PM 2.5 NOx Direct PM 2.5 NOx Direct PM 2.5 NOx 2017 450.2 10,365.7 575.8 12,791.8 -125.6 -2,426.1 2025 369.3 6,900.0 516.0 9,728.1 -146.7 -2,828.1 2035 369.5 6,129.6 516.0 9,728.1 -146.5 -3,598.5 2040 382.5 6,266.0 516.0 9,728.1 -133.5 -3,462.1 11) CONCLUSION This em issions anal ysis transpo rtation confo rm ity has been dem ons trated for the Conn ect icut po rtion of the NY-NJ -CT PM 2.5 attain me nt/main tenan ce area bas ed upon the direct PM 2.5 and the NOx emission budgets for 2017 and 2025 effect ive as of Februa ry 20, 2013. The region has attained National Am bient Air Quali ty Standa rds and EPA publish ed its approval of the PM 2.5 redesigna tion request, establishin g Octob er 24, 2013 as the effect ive date of redesigna tion to attainment for Connecticut’s portion of the NY -NJ -CT area for both the 1997 annual and 2006 24 – hour PM 2.5 NAAQS. Please direct any questions you may have on the air quality em ission anal ysis to: Conn ect icut Depa rtme nt of Transpo rtation Bureau of Policy and Plannin g Division of Coo rdina tion , Modeling and Crash Data – Unit 57531 2800 Ber lin Tu rnpi ke Newington, CT. 06111 (860) 594 -2032 Email: Judy. Raymond@c t.go v 39 APPENDIX A Interagency Consultation Meeting Minutes 40 INTERAGENCY CONSULTATION MEETING Statewide Transportation Improvement Program Amendments Connecticut Department of Transportation Room 2324 –April 19, 2016 Go To Meeting Attendees: Eloise Powell – FHWA Ken Shooshan -Stoller, FHWA Paul Farrell – CTDEEP Paul Bodner – CT DEEP Lou Corsino – CTDEEP Jennifer Carrier – CRCOG Pramad Pandey – CRCOG Cara Radzins – CRCOG Jillian Massey – CRCOG Mark Nielson – CNVMPO Christian Meyer – CNVMPO Meghan Sloan – CT Metro COG Pat Carleton – CT Metro COG Robert Haramut – LCRVCOG Stephen Dudley –SCRCOG James Rode – SCRCOG Richard Guggenheim – SECCOG Joanna Wozniak – NWHill COG Hoween Flexer – NE CT COG Susan Prosi – Western COG Jon Chew – Housatonic Valley Maribeth Wojenski – CTDOT Judy Raymond – CTDOT Rose Etuka – CTDOT Roxane Fromson -CTDOT Grayson Wright – CTDOT Edgar Wynkoop – CTDOT Sara Radacsi – CTDOT Matthew Cegielski – CTDOT Tiffany Garcia – CTDOT Joe Ouellette – CTDOT Ryan Dolan – CTDOT The Interagency Consultation Meeting was held to review projects submitted to the STIP Unit for inclusion in the updated, amended STIP. Both the Ozone and PM 2.5 reports will be electronically distributed to the MPOs in the appropriate Nonattainment/Maintenance areas, FTA, FHWA, DEEP and EPA. The MPOs will need to hold a 30 day public comment and review period. At the end of this review period, the MPO will hold a Policy Board meeting to endorse the Air Quality Conformity determination. 41 There was also a brief discussion on the travel model and emissions software planning assumptions employed in the conformity analysis. The schedule for the 2015 -2018 Regional Transportation Improvement Plans Amendments Conformity Determination Analysis is as follow:  MPOs transmit signed and dated Concurrence Form to judy.raymond@ct.gov by April 19, 2016.  CTDOT Travel Demand Model Unit performs the air quality analysis and sends the Air Quality Conformity Determination Reports electronically to all MPOs in A u g u s t 2016 .  MPOs advertise and hold a 30 -day public review and comment period for the Air Quality Conformity.  MPOs hold a Policy Board meeting approving and endorsing the Air Quality Conformity.  MPOs transmit resolutions endorsing the Air Quality Conformity to judy.raymond@ct.gov by end of October 2016. It is important that all MPOs follow this schedule to ensure that the LRTP and TIP/STIP Amendment Conformity Determinations can go forward on schedule. 42 PLANNING ASSUMPTIONS Ozone and PM2.5 2015 Regional Long Range Transportation Plan Conformity Analysis A p r i l 19 , 2016 Planning Assumptions for Review Frequency of Review * Responsible Agency Year of Data Socioeconomic Data At least every 5 years CTDOT 2010 Census Data available 2012 DMV Vehicle Registration Data At least every 5 years CTDEEP 2011 Data available 2012 State Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Program Each conformity round CTDEEP 2005 Plus State Low Emission Vehicle Program Each conformity round following approval into the SIP CTDEEP Same as SIP VMT Mix Data At least every 5 years CTDEEP 2010 Analysis Years – PM 2.5 Each conformity round CTDOT/CTDEEP 2017, 2025, 2035, 2040 Analysis Years – Ozone Each conformity round CTDOT/CTDEEP 2017, 2025, 2035, 2040 Emission Budget – PM2.5 As SIP revised/updated CTDEEP 2017 / 2025 PM 2.5 Emission Budget – Ozone As SIP revised/updated CTDEEP 2009 Temperatures and Humidity As SIP revised/updated CTDEEP X Control Strategies Each conformity round CTDEEP X HPMS VMT Each conformity round CTDOT 2013 EPA Software Each conformity round CTDOT MOVES2014a * Review of Planning Assumptions does not necessarily prelude an update or calibration of the travel demand model. 43 APPENDIX B PM 2.5 AND NOx PRECURSOR EMISSION OUTPUTS BY ANALYSIS YEAR 44 MOVES2014a 2017 County Summary: County Total Energy Consumption Oxides of Nitrogen 91 3 (Joules/Day) (Tons/Day) 110 116 117 County Primary Exhaust 2.5 Total Brakewear Tirewear Total Fairfield 4.156320E+16 3.949566E+03 120.5385196 24.24356767 10.9236477 155.70573 New Haven 4.169195E+16 3.993233E+03 123.429806 23.07694603 10.89799633 157.40475 Totals 8.325515E+16 7.942799E+03 313.11048 MOVES2014a 2025 County Summary: County Total Energy Consumption Oxides of Nitrogen 91 3 (Joules/Day) (Tons/Day) 110 116 117 County Primary Exhaust 2.5 Total Brakewear Tirewear Total Fairfield 3.495167E+16 2.143620E+03 63.45501713 25.92118839 11.48147335 100.85768 New Haven 3.541139E+16 2.206702E+03 64.2380279 24.90041685 11.53142286 100.66987 Totals 7.036306E+16 4.350323E+03 201.52755 MOVES2014a 2035 County Summary: County Total Energy Consumption Oxides of Nitrogen 91 3 (Joules/Day) (Tons/Day) 110 116 117 County Primary Exhaust 2.5 Total Brakewear Tirewear Total Fairfield 2.938622E+16 1.300432E+03 35.0217624 27.70370133 12.04642738 74.77189 New Haven 3.115337E+16 1.412685E+03 36.79070391 29.27241723 12.62698451 78.69011 Totals 6.053959E+16 2.713118E+03 153.46200 MOVES2014a 2040 County Summary: County Total Energy Consumption Oxides of Nitrogen 91 3 (Joules/Day) (Tons/Day) 110 116 117 County Primary Exhaust 2.5 Total Brakewear Tirewear Total Fairfield 2.886547E+16 1.223008E+03 29.37515389 28.33778892 12.22001177 69.93295 New Haven 3.072112E+16 1.340771E+03 31.07709275 30.0642041 12.85691512 73.99821 Totals 5.958659E+16 2.563780E+03 143.93117 45 APPENDIX C PM2.5 and NOx INPUT FILES TO MOVES2014a 46 20 17 Fair field 49 50 51 20 17 New Haven 55 20 25 Fairfield 56 57 59 60 20 25 New Haven < ![CDATA[RunSpec for New Haven County (09009) for 2025. County scale, inventory mode, 12 months (annual run), weekdays and weekends, 24 hours, all fuels (except placeholder and LPG)/source use type combinations, all road types. All pollutants. Caution: Need to eliminate Primary Exhaust PM2.5 Total to avoid double counting. CALEV and NLEV databases. Output: Activity: all. Include: Fuel Type, Emission Processes, Road Type and Source Use Type For use in 2016 Conformity. September 8, 2016]]> 61 62 64 65 20 35 Fairfield 66 67 69 70 20 35 New Haven 71 72 74 75 20 40 Fairfield 76 77 79 80 20 40 New Haven 81 82 84 85 APPENDIX D ACRONYMS 86 Acronyms Acronym Meaning CAAA Clean Air Act Amendments (1990) CO Carbon Monoxide COG Council of Government CTDOT Connecticut Department of Transportation CTDEEP Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency FSD Final Scope Development (Now PD) ISTEA Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act MAP -21 Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21 st Century Act MOVES Mobile Vehicle Emission Simulator MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NH 3 Ammonia NOx Nitrogen Oxides PD Preliminary Design (Formerly FSD) PDWP Project Development Work Program PM 2.5 Fine Particulate Matter PMT Person Miles Traveled RA Regional Administer ROP Rate of Progress RTP Regional Transportation Plan (generally refers to Regional Transportation Plan Update) SAFETEA -LU Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users SD Study and Development SIP State Implementation Plan SO x Sulfur Oxides STIP Statewide Transportation Improvement Program TCM Transportation Control Measure TIP Transportation Improvement Program USDOT U.S. Department of Transportation USEPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled VOC Volatile Organic Compound