Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile 2015 July 2016 A Report by The Naugatuck Valley Council of Governments Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile Several tables and figures in this report compare data from the 2010r2014 American Community Survey (ACS) fiveryear estimates to the 2000 Census. Beginning in 2005, the ACS replaced the longr form census as the source for detailed socioeconomic and housing data. The first complete ACS data set covered the years 2005r2009. The 2010r2014 ACS is a fiveryear estimate where a small percentr age of all households are sampled each year. ACS estimates reprer sent an average over the course of five years and are not equivar lent to the 100 percent count data from the 2010 census. The ACS fiveryear estimates are not optimal for analyzing year to year trends because four of the five years of samples are reused in the next year?s estimates. Oneryear and threeryear ACS data are only available for larger municipalities. The ACS surveys approximately 3 million households per year (roughly 2.5% of households) and aggregates the data on multir year intervals. The longrform 2000 Census was given to approxir mately 16% of households. Both data sets used samples to calcur late estimates for the entire population. The differences in methr odology between the longrform 2000 Census and the 2010r2014 ACS make their comparisons difficult. However, because of the lack of related data sets, they were compared in several tables and maps. Readers should take note that these comparisons can help show general trends, but may be inaccurate in providing specific numbers. Front Cover: Thomaston Dam, Ryan Clair / US Army Corps of Enr gineers All other photos were taken by NVCOG staff The material contained herein may be quoted or reproduced withr out special permission, although mention of the source is apprecir ated. The preparation of this report was financed through grants from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Adminr istration, and the Federal Transit Administration, and by contribur tions from member municipalities of the Naugatuck Valley Region. Data Disclaimer Photo Credits Attribution Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile Table of Contents Chapter Page 1. Introduc?on …………………………………………………………….. ………………. 1 2. Popula?on and Demographic Trends ……………………………………………. 5 3. Economic Trends …………………………………………………………….. ………. 11 4. Housing Trends …………………………………………………………….. ………… 15 Appendices Page Appendix A: Popula?on and Demographic Trends: Tables and Maps .. 19 Appendix B: Economic Trends: Tables and Maps …………………………….. 49 Appendix C: Housing Trends: Tables and Maps ………………………………. 61 Appendix D: Other Regional Informa?on ……………………………………….. 81 Depot Street Bridge, Beacon Falls Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile 1 Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile The following chapters present demor graphic, economic, and housing data for the Naugatuck Valley Region, a 19rtown region in West Central Connecticut. Data comes from a variety of sources including the 2010 Decennial Census, the 2010r2014 American Community Survey (ACS), the Connecticut Department of Labor (DOL), and the Connecticut Department of Ecor nomic and Community Development (DECD). Summary of Findings This report examines past trends and pror vides an outlook for the future. In recent years, the region?s population, housing, and economic trends have been on the upswing. The 2007r2009 Great Rer cession hit the region harder and longer than the state and nation as a whole. Howr ever, certain industries, such as Manufacr turing, have seen a steady rebound since 2010. The State of Connecticut made a major investment to address future workr force needs in this sector of the region?s economy by creating one of three new Advanced Manufacturing Programs at Naur gatuck Valley Community College in 2012. In addition, Waterbury, the region?s largest city, has made similar investments in creatr ing a manufacturing program at Waterbury Career Academy High School in 2013 and the planned acquisition of a large manufacr turing training facility from the Manufacr turing Alliance Service Corp. in 2016. As of 2014, the unemployment rate has moved down to 7.4%. While the region has added jobs since 2011, it still remains ber low prerrecession levels. During the early 2000s, the region experir enced a building boom, adding over 5,000 new housing units. However, because the housing market bubble was not large in the region to begin with, its negative impact was not as prominent as in other regions and new home construction has picked up since 2012. In the near future, the region will be shaped by the retirement of the baby boomers. A surge in the elderly population will put greater financial burdens on the workforce, and will lead to new fiscal chalr lenges for municipalities. 1. Introduction Economy Popula?on Housing This report will examine the relationship between population, economic, and housing trends Lock 12 Historic Park, Cheshire Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile 2 Methodology is based on Data Haven?s Community Well Being Index 3 Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile Composition of the Region While overall regional trends are inr formative, they fail to account for the differences that exist between municir palities, or even neighborhoods within a municipality. Each scale of analysis tells a different story, and this report will show data in a variety of scales in order to provide as complete an overr view as possible. This report presents data at regional, subregional, municipal, and neighborr hood scales. In order to highlight key trends among similar municipalities, a threerlevel subregional classification was developed (Figure 1b). Municipalir ties were classified as urban core, inner ring, or outer ring based on current and historic population, economic, and housing trends. Table 1a below highr lights some of the differences that exist between the urban core, inner ring, and outer ring communities. To supplement the regional and subr regional scales, tables in the text and appendices present data for each mur nicipality. Where applicable, neighborr hood (blockrgroup) level maps were created to highlight the differences that exist from neighborhood to neighr borhood. Region Urban Core Inner Ring Outer Ring Popula?on 2010 448,708 234,856 127,974 85,878 Popula?on Density per sq. mi. 1,064 2,804 887 444 Popula?on Growth 2000r2010 + 4.6% + 2.4% +4.1% +12.1% Percent Minority 2010 23.9% 36.6% 11.6% 7.3% Percent Foreign Born 2010 10.6% 12.4% 9.0% 7.1% Percent Over Age 65 2020 14.8% 13.4% 15.3% 17.7% Median Age 2010 40.1 37.3 42.9 45.1 Median Household Income 66,989 $49,560 $86,633 $87,357 Poverty Rate 2014 11.3% 17.4% 4.3% 5.1% Percent with Bachelors Degree 28.8% 19.9% 36.8% 39.7% Unemployment Rate 2014 7.4% 9.0% 6.0% 5.5% Jobs 2014 157,198 76,826 56,448 23,924 Job Growth 2004r2014 r0.1% r3.8% 6.0% r1.6% Housing Growth 2004r2014 +3.9% +1.6% +5.9% +8.4% Average Household Size 2010 2.53 2.48 2.56 2.59 Percent SinglerFamily Homes 64.0% 49.5% 79.4% 84.2% Homeownership Rate 2014 68.9% 56.2% 81.6% 86.1% Median Home Value 2014 $248,694 $178,413 $297,045 $311,107 Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile 4 Urban Core During the 19th century, the urban core emerged as a leading manufacturr ing center for brass, copper, clocks, watches, and rubber products. The urban core has high levels of racial and income diversity, high population denr sity, good access to public transit, and plentiful affordable housing. The charr acter of the urban core varies signifir cantly from neighborhood to neighborr hood. Most of the region?s major instir tutions, such as hospitals and higher education, call the urban core home. Inner Ring Inner ring communities contain a mix of urban and suburban characteristics. Smaller manufacturing centers such as Oakville, Terryville, and Shelton emerged in the 19th century, forming the historic cores of the inner ring mur nicipalities. In the post World War II years, these communities became more suburban in character as urban core residents and young families moved in. Today, the population is highly educated and moderately dir verse. In the last decade, the inner ring has seen job growth as companies leave the urban core to be closer to their workforce. Outer Ring The traditionally rural outer ring has become more suburban in character over the last two decades. From 2000 to 2010, the outer ring population grew at 12.1%, far faster than the rer gion, state, and nation. These towns have the lowest population densities, the highest incomes, and the highest proportion of elderly residents. With few local jobs, most outer ring resir dents commute to jobs in neighboring towns and cities. 5 Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile This chapter summarizes regional demographic trends such as population change, race and ethnicity, age, houser hold structure, education, and income. The major population and demographr ic trends shaping the region are: x Population growth in the outer ring is outpacing the rest of the region. x All municipalities are becoming more racially and ethnically diverse. x In the next ten years, the region will see a large increase in retirees and a decline in school aged population. x Nonrtraditional households (nonr married couples) are becoming more common. x There is a large education and inr come gap between the urban core and surrounding municipalities. Population Growth From 2000 to 2010, the region saw a modest 4.6% growth rate, adding 19,918 new residents. This was a faster growth rate than the 1990s, but much slower than the 1980s. About half of the population growth was due to natr ural increase (births minus deaths), while the other half was due to inr migration from outside the region. Der mand for new single family homes in the early 2000s led to explosive growth in outer ring municipalities, which grew at 12.1%. The remainder of the region grew at a slower rate, with a 4.1% inr crease in the inner ring and a 2.4% inr crease in the urban core. Since 2010, population growth has stagnated as a result of the 2007 to 2009 recession. From 2007 to 2013, the number of births dropped by 14.1%. Many families have delayed having children due to economic unr certainty and rising student loan debt. The drop in new home construction since 2008 has prevented new resir dents from moving to the region, parr ticularly in the outer ring. 2. Population and Demographic Trends The Gathering, Waterbury Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile 6 Immigration and Migration While birth rates have fallen, immigrar tion and migration have allowed the region?s population to continue to grow at a modest rate. Just over 10% of the region?s population is foreign born, with the largest groups hailing from Portugal, Poland, Italy, the Dor minican Republic, and Jamaica. The region is also home to a large migrant population from Puerto Rico. From 2000 to 2010, the region had a net gain of 9,320 residents through inr migration. While the outer ring experir enced a natural decrease in population (more deaths than births), they added 9,490 residents through inrmigration (people moving into the region). At the other end of the spectrum, the urban core had a large natural increase (more births than deaths) offset by a loss of nearly 4,000 residents through outrmigration. The inner ring saw a small natural increase and gained 3,787 residents through inrmigration. Population Projections Population projections from the Conr necticut State Data Center indicate that up to 2025, the region?s popular tion will continue to grow, but at a slower rate than in the past. From 2010 to 2025, the region is projected to grow by 4.9%, adding approximately 22,000 new residents. The outer ring is projected to grow at the fastest rate, adding 8,700 residents by 2025, a 10.1% increase. New home construction and inrmigration will conr tinue to drive population growth in the outer ring. Middlebury and Oxford are projected to be the two fastestr growing municipalities in the region. In the inner ring, shrinking household size and an increase in elderly resir dents means that new housing units are necessary to maintain population growth. The growth rate in the inner ring is expected to slow to just 2.2% between 2010 and 2025. Communities such as Cheshire and Shelton are close to being ?built out? and have little developable land to support new housr ing units. The population is projected to level out by 2020 in Cheshire and by 2025 in Shelton. Due to high birth rates, the urban core is projected to see modest growth up to 2025, adding over 10,000 new resir dents. Waterbury, which has a much higher birth rate than the rest of the region, is projected to grow by 6.1%. While population projections are user ful, they are unable to predict changes in the housing market and economy. The housing market will dictate where growth will occur, particularly for the inner and outer ring. Similarly, birth rates, migration, and immigration are closely tied to the economy. A growing economy generally sees higher popular tion growth than a stagnant economy. Sources: Connec?cut State Data Center, Popula?on Projec?ons by Municipality: 2015, 2020, and 2025. U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 7 Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile Black 6.7% White 76.1% Hispanic 12.7% Asian 2.3% Other 2.2% Black 5.4% White 83.1% Hispanic 8.2% Asian 1.5% Other 1.8% ?Other? includes American Indian/Alaska Na?ves, Paci?c Islanders, Some Other Race, and Mul?racial persons. Black, Asian, Other, and White popula?ons only include nonrHispanic persons. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 U.S. Census, 2000 . Race and Ethnicity Immigration, migration, and higher birth rates among minority groups have made the region?s population more diverse than ever before. As of 2010, 86,052 residents were of a minority race or ethnicity, making up 23.9% of the total. This is an increase from 2000, when just 16.9% of the population ber longed to a minority group. From 2000 to 2010, the urban core experienced ?white flight? as their nonrHispanic white populations declined by over 20,000. This coincided with rapid growth among Hispanics, African Amerr icans, and Asians. Waterbury is a minorityrmajority city, with 54.6% of its population belonging to a minority racial or ethnic group. Ansonia, Derby, Naugatuck, and Bristol have the next highest minority popular tions. Outside of the urban core, less than 10% of the population belongs to a minority group, although this trend is changing. Between 2000 and 2010, inr ner ring and outer ring communities saw their minority populations grow at rates of 60.6% and 94.7% respectively, exceeding the urban core growth rate of 43.3%. Hispanics are the largest and fastest growing minority group in the region with a population of 57,176, a 63% inr crease from 2000. Hispanics now make up 12.7% of the population. A majority of Hispanics who live in the region are of Puerto Rican heritage, including nearly 25,000 who live in Waterbury. There was also sizable growth among African Americans, who make up 6.7% of the population. Asians, the second fastest growing minority group from 2000 to 2010 (61.9%), are more likely to live in the suburbs than the urban core. Figure 2c compares the racial and ethnic composition of the Naugatuck Valley in 2000 and 2010. Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile 8 Age The region?s population is aging. In 1990, the median age was 34.3. By 2000 it increased to 37.6, and by 2010 reached 40.1 years old. The urban core has the youngest median age at 37.3 years old while the outer ring is the oldest at 45.1 years old. From 2000 to 2010, the number of residents over the age of 65 increased by 6.0%, with the fastest growth in the inner ring (15.9%) and outer ring (26.5%). The urban core saw a decrease in elderly residents (r6.4%). The aging trend will accelerate as baby boomers reach retirement age. The population over the age of 65 is pror jected to balloon from 66,227 in 2010 to over 100,000 by 2025. The workingraged (age 15 to 64) popur lation is expected to stay stable up to 2020 and then decline slightly by 2025. As the baby boomers age into retirer ment, millennials (born between 1980 and 2000) will make up a greater porr tion of the region?s workforce. As of 2010, there are 83,735 children under the age of 15, making up 18.7% of the total. This age group is expected to decline to 70,805 by 2025. Inner ring and outer ring communities are projected to see their population unr der age 15 decrease by over 25%. The changing age structure of the rer gion will shift the financial burdens of municipalities. Budgets will shift away from education and youth services tor wards elderly services such as health care, transportation, and recreation. This is particularly true in inner and outer ring communities, where a drar matic increase in elderly population will correspond with a decrease in schoolraged population. Greater finanr cial burdens will be placed on the working aged population, who will have to support the growing number of retirees. Source: Connec?cut State Data Center, Popula?on Projec?ons: 2010r2025 U.S. Census 2010 9 Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile Household and Family Structure Household arrangements have changed as the average age of marr riage increases, family sizes decrease, and life expectancy increases. For the first time in history, less than half of the region?s households are made up of married couples. Persons living alone, cohabitating couples, married couples without children, and single parent households are becoming more prevalent. Less than half of married couples have children age 18 and under. ?Empty nesters? are becoming more common as the millennial generation ages, and many young couples have delayed havr ing children in the last few years due to economic uncertainty. Household structure in the urban core differs significantly from the inner and outer ring communities. Just 40.1% of urban core households are married couples compared to 57.9% in the inr ner ring and 60.3% in the outer ring. A disproportionate number of singler parent households are found in the urban core. Education As of 2014, 28.8% of the region?s adults age 25 and over have a Bacher lor?s degree or higher. This compares to 29.2% of adults nationwide, and 36.9% statewide. There is a large disr crepancy in educational attainment between the urban core and the rer mainder of the region. In the urban core, just 19.9% of the population age 25 and older has a Bachelor?s degree or higher, compared to 36.8% in the inner ring, and 39.7% in the outer ring. Since 2000, educational attainment has improved across all municipalities. The number of residents with at least a Bachelor?s degree increased by 33.6%, with the fastest increase occurring in the outer ring. During the same period, the number of residents without a high school diploma dropped by over 30%. Education is strongly correlated with income. Persons with a college degree have much higher incomes than high school graduates. Municipalities with a higher proportion of college gradur ates have higher incomes than less educated municipalities. Figure 2e ber low illustrates the relationship ber tween education and income. Urban Core Region Outer Ring Inner Ring Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile 10 Income and Poverty There is a large income gap between the urban core and remainder of the region. From 2010 to 2014, median household income in the urban core was $49,560 compared to $86,633 in the inner ring and $87,357 in the outer ring. Over a quarter of households in the urban core are low income (making less than $25,000 per year) compared to 11.6% in the inner ring and 11.3% in the outer ring. On the opposite end of the income spectrum, over 40% of households in the inner and outer ring are high income (making $100,000 or more per year) compared to less than 20% in the urban core. The Great Recession negatively imr pacted household and family income throughout the region. In addition, the growing number of elderly persons puts additional financial strain on households (retirees have less income than workingraged persons). Since 1999, median household income der clined in 16 out of 19 municipalities. The highest drops in household income occurred in the urban core towns of Ansonia, Derby, and Naugatuck. These three towns have a high percentage of single parent households. The number of people in poverty inr creased by 58.8% from 2000 to 2014. In 2000, there were 31,412 persons living in poverty (7.5% of total). By 2014, it had increased to 49,880 (11.3% of total). Poverty increased at a moderate rate in the inner ring and highest in outer ring municipalities and the urban core. Waterbury, which has a poverty rate of 24.2%, is home to over half of the region?s impoverished. Child poverty is a prevalent issue in the urban core, where 26.6% of chilr dren live below the poverty line. Ansor nia, Derby and Waterbury have child poverty rates exceeding 20%. Child poverty is also strongly correlated with household structure. Children in single parent households are 4.4 times more likely to live in poverty than houser holds with both parents present. 11 Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile The Naugatuck Valley economy was hit hard by the 2007 to 2009 recession. The major economic trends shaping the region are: x Unemployment disproportionately affects young workers under the age of 25. x As of 2014, the region has gained back 58% of the jobs that were lost during the recession. x Jobs are suburbanizing. During the last ten years the inner ring saw job growth while the urban core lost jobs. x Over half of Naugatuck Valley resir dents commute to jobs outside the region. Labor Force The labor force is made up of Naur gatuck Valley residents over the age of 16 who are either employed, or are unemployed and looking for work. As of 2013, the region?s labor force was 234,819, of which 217,415 were emr ployed and 17,404 were unemployed. From 2010 to 2013 the state and rer gion experienced a labor force contracr tion, meaning that there were fewer residents who were employed or lookr ing for work. The labor force contracr tion can be attributed to stagnant job growth, unemployed workers dropping out of the labor force, and a growing number of residents hitting retirement age. In 2014 the labor force grew for the first time since 2009. People who had difficulty finding work during the last few years are reentering the labor force as the job market improves. Employment As of 2014 there were 217,415 emr ployed residents living in the region. This is a decline of 3,630 (r1.6%) from 2007, when there were 221,045 emr ployed residents. The number of emr ployed residents decreased every year from 2008 to 2013 but grew in 2014. Population projections indicate that a significant number of baby boomers are nearing retirement age. The numr ber of working aged residents is pror jected to remain stable up to 2020 and decline thereafter as the last of the baby boomers retire. Attracting and retaining young workers will be necesr sary to replace the growing number of retirees. 3. Economic Trends Shelton Corporate Park, Shelton Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile 12 Unemployment From 2007 to 2010 the region saw the number of unemployed residents more than double from 11,954 to 24,656. The jump in unemployment was caused by both job losses and labor force growth. Unemployment has der creased each year since 2010. As of 2014, it stands at 17,404, or 7.4% of the labor force. The labor force conr traction (unemployed persons that have stopped looking for work) is rer sponsible for some of the drop in unr employment. Despite improvements over the last three years, the unemr ployment rate remains above state and national averages. Figure 3a sumr marizes labor force, employment, and unemployment trends over the last 20 years. Unemployment trends vary by location and age. As of 2014, unemployment is highest in the urban core communities of Waterbury (10.7%), Ansonia (9.2%), and Derby (7.9%), and lowest in the inner ring community of Cheshire (4.6%) and the outer ring communities of Woodbury (5.1%), Middlebury (5.1%), and Prospect (5.3%). Due to the collapse of the stock market from 2007 to 2009, many older workr ers have continued to work into retirer ment age. This trend, combined with the lack of new job creation, has led to a disproportionately high unemployr ment rate among young people. The unemployment rate for residents unr der the age of 25 is 20.5% compared to 10.0% for middle aged workers (age 25 r44) and 7.6% for older workers (age 45 and older). 13 Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile Jobs During the recession, the region exper rienced sharper job losses than the state and nation as a whole. From 2007 to 2011, 12,337 jobs were lost, a decline of 7.6%. The manufacturing, finance and insurance, and construcr tion sectors experienced the sharpest job losses. Some sectors, such as health care and social assistance, and educational services, added jobs during the recession. These sectors have trar ditionally been ?recessionrproof.? Since 2011 the economy has improved, adding over 7,000 jobs. As of 2014, the region has gained back 58.1% of the jobs that were lost during the recesr sion. Comparatively, the state has gained back 114% of the jobs that were lost during the recession. As of 2014 there are 157,198 jobs in the region. Despite job losses during the last ten years, Waterbury remains the job center of the region followed by Shelton, Bristol, and Cheshire. As the population shifts to the suburbs, many employers have followed in orr der to be closer to their workforce. From 2004 to 2014, the urban core lost over 3,000 jobs while the inner ring gained over 3000 jobs, mostly in Shelr ton and Cheshire. Outer ring towns with good highway access (such as Oxr ford and Middlebury) also saw job growth. Over the last half century, the region has shifted from a manufacturingr oriented economy to a servicer oriented one. Health care and social assistance is now the largest job sector followed by government (which inr cludes public school teachers). While much less prominent than in the past, manufacturing remains the third largr est sector of the region?s economy, with over 20,000 jobs. A majority of manufacturing jobs are now located outside of the urban core. Employment projections from the Conr necticut Department of Labor indicate that the health care and social assisr tance sector will drive job creation up to 2020, largely due to increased der mand for health care by the baby boomers. Other sectors projected to add jobs up to 2020 are professional and business services, and construcr tion, although the latter is largely der pendent on the housing market. Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile 14 Commuting There is a large mismatch between the number of employed residents living in the region and the number of jobs in the region. There are enough jobs to employ just 75% of working residents. The result is a net export of over 50,000 workers each day to other rer gions, with many commuting to Hartr ford, New Haven, Bridgeport, Danbury, and lower Fairfield County. Cheshire and Shelton are the only mur nicipalities in the region that have more jobs than employed residents. The remaining municipalities have more employed residents than jobs and are net exporters of commuters. As of 2014, when the most recent comr muting data was available, just 40.1% of employed Naugatuck Valley resir dents worked in the region. The rer maining 59.9% commute to jobs outr side of the region. Waterbury is the most popular commuting destination followed by Bristol, Cheshire and Shelr ton. Outside of the region, the most popular destinations are Hartford, New Haven, Stratford, Bridgeport, and Danr bury. Similarly, nearly half of the peor ple who work in the Naugatuck Valley live outside of the region. Wages The average wage of workers in the region is $55,845 which is above the national average of $47,230, but below the state average of $63,909. Since 2007, the region has seen wages der crease at a smaller rate (r0.3%) than the state, which declined by ?2.8%. Average wages vary significantly from sector to sector. The Management of Companies and Enterprises has an avr erage wage of over $281,049, while the Accommodation and Food Services Sector has an average wage of just $17,088. Table 3a below shows the highest and lowest wage sectors in the region. Sector Average Wage Management of Companies and Enterprises $281,049 Informa?on $119,050 U?li?es $99,288 Finance and Insurance $91,564 Wholesale Trade $74,213 Sector Average Wage Accommoda?on and Food Services $17,074 Arts, Entertainment, and Recrea?on $20,844 Other Services $24,255 Retail Trade $29,686 Administra?ve & Waste Management $32,413 15 Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile In recent years, the housing market has been shaped by the Great Recesr sion and preceding housing bubble. The major housing trends shaping the region are: x New construction in the outer ring is outpacing new construction in the rest of the region. x Since peaking in 2005, new conr struction decreased r82% by 2011. x Home prices grew rapidly from 2003 to 2007, but have declined each year since 2007. x Homes in the region are more afr fordable than the state as a whole. x Most of the affordable housing in the region is found in the urban core. New Construction During the early 2000s the region exr perienced a building boom. New conr struction peaked from 2002 to 2005 when over 5,000 housing units were built. The vast majority (85%) of new homes were singlerfamily homes. Shelr ton and Oxford led the region in new construction. Shelton added 826 housr ing units (340 of which were multir family) while Oxford added 715 single family units. Similar to population trends, housing growth was fastest in the outer ring (7.9%) and inner ring (5.6%). Due to shrinking household sizes, housing has grown at a faster rate than the number of households. New home construction peaked in 2005 with 1,676 units, but fell to just 298 units in 2011 as the national housr ing bubble burst. New construction has remained well below its historic levels since then. The multi family market picked up pace in 2012 and 2013 due to apartment and condominium conr struction in Shelton. In 2014 the urban core added 77 units with 46 in Bristol and 31 in Waterbury. Construction of new single family homes has remained stagnant. 4. Housing Trends Oxford Greens, Oxford Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile 16 Housing Stock As of 2014, the region has 185,942 housing units. Singlerfamily homes comprise 64% of units. Outer ring comr munities such as Oxford, Bethlehem, and Middlebury are made up almost entirely of singlerfamily homes. By conr trast, a vast majority of the region?s multirfamily housing units are found in the urban core. However, in the last decade, a majority of the new multir family units were built outside of the urban core. Homes in the inner and outer ring are larger and newer than their urban core counterparts. The median year of conr struction for the region is 1965. The urban core has the oldest housing stock (1962) followed by the inner ring (1969) and outer ring (1975). Suburban homes are also larger. Over 60% of housing units in the inner and outer rings have six or more rooms compared to 41.3% in the urban core. Home Ownership As of 2014, 68.9% of households in the region live in an ownerroccupied home. This is slightly higher than the 67.3% homeownership rate statewide. Outr side the core, over 80% of households live in ownerroccupied homes. Threer quarters of all rental units are located in the urban core. Homeownership trends also vary by type of housing unit and income. Single family units are much more likely to be owner occupied (90.8%) than multir family units (23.7%). High income households are more likely to own a home than low income households. Less than 35% of households that make under $25,000 live in an ownerr occupied unit compared to over 90% for households that make over $100,000. 17 Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile Home Values In keeping with national and state trends, the region saw rapid home valr ue appreciation in the early 2000s. From 2003 to 2007, the equalized net grand list, or ENGL, (the total market value of all properties in the region) increased by 38.4%, or nearly $17 bilr lion. While the bulk of the increase was due to overvalued real estate, some of the increase was due to new construcr tion. After peaking in 2007, the housr ing market began its subsequent colr lapse. From 2007 to 2013, the ENGL dropped by r26.2%, a loss of almost $16 billion. The urban core saw the highest ENGL growth from 2003 to 2007 (41.0%) followed by the sharpest decline from 2007 to 2013 (r26.2%). Figure 4b shows changes in inflation adjusted ENGL from 2002 to 2013. The drop in property values and mur nicipal grand list value has led to fiscal challenges for municipalities, who have been forced to either raise property tax rates, cut services, or both. In addir tion, many homeowners have negative equity (their home is worth less than their mortgage) leading to increases in foreclosure and home vacancy. Despite volatility in the housing market over the last few years, the region rer mains more affordable than the state as a whole. The median home value for owner occupied units in the region is $249,000, compared to $274,500 statewide. Eleven of the 19 municipalir ties in the region are more affordable than the statewide median. Homes are most affordable in the urban core ($178,000) while the inner ($297,000) and outer ($311,000) rings have the most expensive homes. Urban Core Inner Ring Outer Ring Source: Connec?cut O8ce of Policy and Management. Equalized Net Grand List, by Municipality: 2003r2013 All values are in 2013 dollars Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile 18 Housing Costs Monthly homeowner costs and monthr ly rent also provide insight into the rer gion?s affordability. Median monthly homeowner costs range from a low of $1,367 in Waterr bury to $2,097 in Oxford. Homeowners with a mortgage pay more than twice as much per month as homeowners without a mortgage. From 2000 to 2014, median monthly homeowner costs for homes with a mortgage have risen between 5% and 20% depending on the municipality . Nonrmortgaged homeowner costs increased at a faster rate than mortgage costs, suggesting that fuel prices, electricity rates, taxes, and insurance are increasing . Renters pay less per month than homer owners. Median gross rents (lease amount plus utilities) range from a low of $839 in Thomaston to $1,357 in Southbury. Rent has not increased as fast as homeowner costs. In four outer ring towns and one inner ring town, inflationradjusted rents actually der creased from 2000 to 2014 . Affordable Housing The U.S. Census Bureau uses 30% of household income as a standard for measuring housing affordability. In orr der to be considered affordable, homer owners should pay 30% or less of their income towards housing. As of 2014, 39.2% of households pay 30% or more of their income towards housing. Renters (49.3%) are more likely to pay 30% or more of their income towards housing than homeowners (34.6%). More than half of urban core renters pay 30% or more of their income for housing. Low income households may qualify for publicly assisted housing programs such as Section 8 vouchers, deed rer strictions, and Connecticut Housing Finance Authority (CHFA) or Farmer?s Home Administration (FmHA) mortgagr es. Over 84% of publicly assisted housr ing units are found in the urban core, including more than half in the City of Waterbury. Municipalities that have less than 10% affordable housing are subject to Conr necticut General Statutes (CGS) Section 8r30g, which limits the conditions unr der which towns may deny applications for such developments. Ansonia (13.9%), Bristol (13.0%), Derby (11.3%), and Waterbury (22.7%) are the only municipalities that meet the 10% afr fordable housing threshold. The rer maining municipalities have less than 10% affordable housing and are subject to CGS Section 8r30g. 19 Naugatuck Valley Regional Profile Appendix A Population and Demographic Trends Tables and Maps Topic Page Popula?on …………………………………………………………….. …………………… 20 Popula?on Density ………………………………………………………………