C e n t r a l N a u g a t u c k V a l l e y Economic Profile: 2013 February, 2014 T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S I I . A n a l y s i s o f R e g i o n a l E c o n o m i c C o n d i t i o n s Goods Producing Sectors 4 15 I . I n t r o d u c t i o n 2 I I I . S e c t o r S c o r e c a r d s 15 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 20 Financial Activities and Information 25 Professional & Business Services 29 Health Care and Social Assistance 33 Leisure and Hospitality 36 Other Services 39 P H O T O C R E D I T S Page Photographer Description Front Cover Aaron Budris, COGCNV Waterbury and I- 84 from Highland Avenue Page 4 Joe Perrelli, COGCNV Interstate 84 in Middlebury Page 5 Bing Maps ™ Aerial view of Cheshire Industrial Park Page 15 Don Antilla Grinding at bench Page 20 Wikimedia User Emmyceru Brass Mill Center Mall, Waterbury Page 25 Aaron Budris Webster Bank Headquarters, Waterbury Page 29 Don Antilla IBM Complex, Southbury Page 33 Aaron Budris UCONN Waterbury Campus Page 36 Aaron Budris Dock on Lake Quassapaug, Middlebury Page 39 COGCNV Southbury Farmers Market Page 41 Aaron Budris Thomaston Opera House and Town Hall S u m m a r y o f M a j o r F i n d i n g s 1 Public Administration 41 This document presents data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s LEHD Origin -Destination Employment Statistics (LODES), a product of the Longitudinal Employer -Household Dynamics (LEHD) program. The LODES dataset combines wage records, employer reports, administrative and demographic information, and records from the U.S. Census Bureau. The most recent dataset was available for the year 2011. The LODES dataset offers an un- precedented level of geographic and demographic detail compared to other economic datasets. Employment locations are aggregated to the Census Block geography to protect privacy and are for general planning pur- poses only. LODES data was supplemented with data from the Connecticut Department of Labor and U.S. Bu- reau of Labor Statistics. Statistics from the different data sources do not match up perfectly due to differing data collection methods. For example, the Connecticut Department of Labor data classifies all government employees into one category while the LODES dataset separates them by function (public school teachers would be considered “educational services” employees). These discrepancies were marked in the report with an asterisk. D A T A D I S C L A I M E R Dataset Source Employment U.S. Census Bureau, LODES dataset, Area Profile for All Jobs, 2011 Employment Change U.S. Census Bureau, LODES dataset, 2002 and 2011, COGCNV staff calculations Percent of Employment: U.S. Census Bureau, LODES dataset, 2011, COGCNV staff calculations Location Quotient: U.S. Census Bureau, LODES dataset, 2011, COGCNV staff calculations Number of Establishments: Connecticut Department of Labor, LAUS Employment Statistics, by Town, 2011 Average Establishment Size: Connecticut Department of Labor, LAUS Employment Statistics, by Town, 2011 Average Annual Wage: Connecticut Department of Labor, LAUS Employment Statistics, by Town, 2011 Median Worker Age (Years): U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Worker Age (Nationally) by Sector, 2012 State Employment Projections Connecticut Department of Labor, Connecticut Occupational Projections: 2010 -2020 National Employment Projections U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Industry Employment and Output Projections to 2020 D A T A S O U R C E S Su mmar y of Major Findi ngs  The Central Naugatuck Valley Region (CNVR) had a total employment of 98,453 in 2011, a loss of 5,100 jobs ( -4.9%) from 2002. Comparatively, there were 130,968 employed persons living in the region, a net export of over 32,500 workers. Half of all CNVR residents now work outside the re- gion and over 40 percent of all CNVR workers live outside the region.  Recovery from the 2007 -2009 economic recession has been slow, particularly for goods -producing sectors. Regional employment peaked at 104,492 in 2007 and declined to a low of 96,423 in 2010. Employment has grown slowly since 2010 but only education and health services has exceeded pre -recession employment levels.  Service -producing sectors now make up nearly 80 percent of the region’s total employment. The service sector contains a mix of low paying jobs (accommodation and food services, retail trade) and high paying jobs (finance and insurance, management of companies and enterprises).  The region has high concentrations of manufacturing, retail trade, wholesale trade, and health care and social assistance employment compared to other parts of the state.  The region has very low concentrations of employment in the finance and insurance, arts, enter- tainment and recreation, management of companies and enterprises, and information sectors compared to other parts of the state.  The wholesale trade sector was identified as the strongest major sector of the CNVR economy. It saw employment growth from 2002 -2011, has a high job concentration relative to the state and nation, and has seen positive regional trends. Much of the wholesale trade employment in the re- gion is found in Cheshire Industrial Park near the I -84 and I-691 interchange.  After decades of decline, manufacturing employment is projected to stay relatively stable from 2010 to 2020. Manufacturing subsectors such as plastics and rubber product manufacturing and chemical manufacturing are projected to add jobs statewide. 1 Par t I : In t roduc tion This report presents an overview of the economy in the Central Naugatuck Valley Region (CNVR). Each sector of the region’s economy is examined, highlighting past trends and projections for future economic growth. The Central Naugatuck Valley The Central Naugatuck Valley Region is comprised of thir- teen municipalities in west central Connecticut: Beacon Falls, Bethlehem, Cheshire, Middlebury, Naugatuck, Ox- ford, Prospect, Southbury, Thomaston, Waterbury, Wa- tertown, Wolcott, and Woodbury. Waterbury, the fifth largest city in the state, anchors the region and is sur- rounded by a mix of suburban and rural towns. The re- gion is centrally located within Connecticut and the Northeast. Hartford, New Haven, and Bridgeport are all within a 30 mile radius. New York City is 80 miles to the southwest, and Boston is 130 miles to the northeast. The Central Naugatuck Valley Region Historically, the region was the center of American brass manufacturing, producing products such as clocks, buttons, munitions and machines. During the post -WWII years, brass producers moved west, and eventually abroad, and plastics replaced brass in many products. The CNVR economy has diversified significantly since its manufacturing heyday. Healthcare, educational services, retail, and professional and business services now domi- nate the economy. Fabricated metal production remains an important component of the economy. The second half of the 20th century saw extraordinary population and employment growth in the CNVR’s subur- ban and rural communities. Despite suburbanization, Waterbury remains the social, cultural, institutional, and employment center of the region. Today, residents of the CNVR are more mobile than ever before. As of 2011, a majority of residents worked outside the region, with many commuting to New Haven, Hartford, and Fairfield County. Similarly, over 40 percent of the CNVR workforce lives outside the region. The increasing interplay be- tween Connecticut’s regions suggests that partnerships outside our borders are a key component to the region’s future economic growth. Impact of the Great Recession Like the state and nation, the Central Naugatuck Valley Region saw significant job losses during the Great Reces- sion of 2007 -2009. Employment peaked in 2007 at 104,492 and declined to a low of 96,423 in 2010, a loss of 7,752 jobs (Figure 1). During that same time period, un- employment more than doubled from 5.3% in 2007 to 10.8% in 2010. The goods -producing sectors, notably manufacturing and construction, were the hardest hit parts of the region’s economy, losing a combined 5,339 jobs from 2007 to 2010. From 2010 to 2011 the trend was reversed and employment grew by 550 employees. Not all sectors con- tracted in the wake of recession. Education and health services added nearly 1,000 jobs from 2007 to 2010. Since 2010, the region’s economy has slowly recovered. From 2010 to 2011, the region gained back 2,000 jobs. By 2012, the unemployment rate dropped to 9.7%, but re- mained above state and national averages. Likewise, Connecticut’s recovery from the Great Recession has been slow and it will take many years to regain all the jobs that were lost. 2 GREAT RECESSION Figure 1. Total Employment in the CNVR: 2002 -2011 Figure 2. Employment as a Percentage of Pre -Recession Employment, by Super Sector: 2007 -2011 + 4.0% – 0.7% – 5.5% – 7.8% – 13.9% – 23.0% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, On The Map, LODES Dataset: Area Profile for All Jobs 2002 – 2011 90,00092,00094,00096,00098,000100, 000102, 000104, 000106, 000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 60.0.00. 00. 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Goods Producing Tra de, Transporta tion & Utilities Fina ncia l Activities & I nformation Profess ional & B usiness Services Educa tion & H ea lth Services Leis ure & Hospi tali ty 3 Par t I I: Ana lysis of Re giona l Eco nomi c Co nditi ons Employment Trends Between 2002 and 2011, the Central Naugatuck Valley Region saw its employment drop from 103,553 to 98,453 resulting in a loss of 5,100 jobs ( -4.9%). During that same time period, the state as a whole grew slowly and added 2,521 jobs (0.2% increase). The four largest sectors of the region’s economy, health care and social assistance (19,921), retail trade (12,666), manufacturing (11,935), and educational services (11,400), comprised 56.8% of the region’s total jobs. Employment in the health care and social assistance and educational ser- vices sectors both increased from 2002 to 2011 while manufacturing and retail trade employment declined. Manufacturing ( -5,575) and construction ( -1,178) saw the largest net job losses from 2002 to 2011 while edu- cational services (1,449) and health care and social assis- tance (1,412) saw the largest net gains. Employment tends for all sectors can be seen in Table 1. Employment vs. Workforce The CNVR has a significant employment to workforce mismatch. 98,453 people work in the region, compared to 130,968 employed residents (workforce) living in the region, a net export of over 32,500 workers. As a result, an increasing number of CNVR residents work outside of the region. The sectors with the largest net exports were manufacturing ( -4,751), health care and social assistance ( -4,721), and finance and insurance ( -3,712). Only the utilities, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sectors (two of the smallest sectors of the region’s econ- omy) saw net imports of workers from other regions. A comparison of employment and workforce by sector can be seen in Table 2 and Figure 3. The employment to workforce ratio is calculated by di- viding employment (people working in a municipality) by workforce (employed people living in a municipality). Ratios of 1.00 or over indicate that a municipality is a net importer of workers while values less than 1.00 indi- cate net exporters. Ratios vary significantly between CNVR municipalities. Cheshire is the only town in the region is a net importer of workers (ratio of 1.06). South- bury, Waterbury, and Middlebury each have ratios be- tween 0.95 and 1.00 indicating that they are small ex- Municipality Employment Workforce Ratio Beacon Falls 1,489 3,019 0.49 Bethlehem 689 1,665 0.41 Cheshire 15,053 14,243 1.06 Middlebury 3,494 3,659 0.95 Naugatuck 7,400 17,282 0.43 Oxford 2,938 6,087 0.48 Prospect 1,988 5,154 0.39 Southbury 7,463 7,814 0.96 Thomaston 2,753 4,195 0.66 Waterbury 41,510 43,503 0.95 Watertown 8,240 11,163 0.74 Wolcott 2,792 8,879 0.31 Woodbury 1,985 4,268 0.47 Municipality Employment Workforce Ratio Hartford 121,334 42,770 2.84 New Haven 82,658 43,823 1.89 Stamford 72,101 54,747 1.32 Danbury 45,394 32,739 1.39 Norwalk 44,466 42,855 1.04 Bridgeport 44,197 52,176 0.85 Waterbury 41,510 43,503 0.95 Employment vs. Workforce in the CNVR, by Town: 2011 Employment vs. Workforce in Connecticut Cities: 2011 The employment to workforce mismatch has led to an increase in inter -regional commuting, notably on the I -84 and Route 8 corridors Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, On The Map, LODES Dataset: All Jobs 2011 4 porters. The remaining municipalities have ratios rang- ing from 0.74 to 0.31 and are large exporters of workers. Most large cities in Connecticut are net importers of workers from their surrounding suburban towns. Hartford (2.84), New Haven (1.89), Stamford (1.32), and Danbury (1.39) are the largest employment centers in the state and have high employment to workforce rati- os. Despite being among the largest employment cen- ters in the state, Bridgeport (0.85) and Waterbury (0.95) are both net exporters of workers. The sectors with the lowest employment to workforce ratios were finance and insurance (0.42), information (0.47), and management of companies and enterprises (0.49). CNVR residents who work in these sectors are most likely to commute to jobs outside the region. Rati- os for all sectors can be seen in Table 2. Location Quotients Location quotients (LQs) are a measurement of regional job concentration relative to a reference area (usually the state or nation). LQs are calculated by dividing the percentage of regional employment in a sector by the percentage of state or national employment in that same sector. Values over 1 mean that the sector has a higher job concentration than the reference area, while values between 0 and 1 indicate a lower concentration. Nine of the twenty sectors of the region’s economy, in- cluding the four largest sectors, had higher job concen- tration than the state. Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction (4.8) and agriculture, forestry, fishing , and hunting (1.5) had the two highest location quotients but do not indicate strong performing sectors since employ- ment is so low. The wholesale trade sector had the high- est concentration (1.4) of any major sector. The lowest concentrated sectors were finance and insurance (0.4), management of companies and enterprises (0.5), and arts, entertainment, and recreation (0.5). A complete list of location quotients by sector can be found in Table 3. Shift- Share Analysis Shift -share analysis is a technique used to determine how much employment change in the region is attribut- able to state growth, national growth, and industry trends, and how much is due to regional characteristics (regional share). Sectors with a positive regional share have a higher growth rate than national, state, and in- dustry averages and are becoming more competitive. Wholesale trade and “other services” were the only two major sectors that had positive regional shares com- pared to both the state and the nation. These industries grew at a faster rate than can be explained by state, na- tional, or industry trends. The health care and social as- sistance and manufacturing sectors had the largest neg- ative regional shares indicating that they contracted faster (manufacturing) or grew slower (health care and social assistance) compared to state, national, and in- dustry averages. A complete shift -share analysis for all sectors can be seen in Table 4 and Table 5. Identifying Regional Strengths Regional strengths were identified using the industry targeting analysis decision tree (Figure 5), which uses location quotients, employment trends, and shift -share analysis to identify high -performing and low-performing sectors. Sectors were classified into four categories: re- gional strengths, high priority retention targets, emerg- ing strengths, and limited prospects. Regional strengths, high priority retention targets, and emerging strengths are the best performing sectors and have the most po- tential for future economic growth. Limited prospects have performed poorly in the past and are unlikely to be drivers of future economic growth without changes to economic structure, technology, or policy. Cheshire Industrial Park, located near the I -84 and I -691 interchange is home to much of the region’s wholesale trade employment. 5 Table 1. Change in Employment in the CNVR, by Sector: 2002 -2011 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, On The Map, LODES Dataset: Area Profile for All Jobs, 2002 and 2011 Sector Regional Employment State Employment 2002 2011 Percent Change 2002 2011 Percent Change Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 433 413 -4.6% 5,400 4,503 -16.6% Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 170 155 -8.8% 654 534 -18.3% Utilities 429 700 63.2% 9,803 8,649 -11.8% Construction 4,909 3,731 -24.0% 63,731 51,703 -18.9% Manufacturing 17,510 11,935 -31.8% 219,118 172,367 -21.3% Wholesale Trade 5,384 5,438 1.0% 67,097 65,808 -1.9% Retail Trade 12,985 12,666 -2.5% 188,448 174,890 -7.2% Transportation and Warehousing 2,722 2,540 -6.7% 38,944 40,380 3.7% Information 1,874 1,367 -27.1% 44,233 36,415 -17.7% Finance and Insurance 3,295 2,697 -18.1% 118,028 118,683 0.6% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 1,145 933 -18.5% 21,173 19,340 -8.7% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 5,746 5,008 -12.8% 91,404 90,029 -1.5% Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,117 1,029 -7.9% 27,587 30,925 12.1% Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 3,875 4,167 7.5% 80,071 81,512 1.8% Educational Services 9,951 11,400 14.6% 158,987 183,975 15.7% Health Care and Social Assistance 18,509 19,921 7.6% 223,236 265,251 18.8% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,245 1,170 -6.0% 43,862 41,462 -5.5% Accommodation and Food Services 5,544 5,810 4.8% 96,254 109,602 13.9% Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 3,187 3,806 19.4% 54,410 58,116 6.8% Public Administration 3,523 3,567 1.2% 58,307 59,124 1.4% Total All Jobs 103,553 98,453 -4.9% 1,610,747 1,613,268 0.2% 6 Table 2. Employment to Workforce Ratio in the CNVR, by Sector: 2011 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, On The Map, LODES Dataset: Area Profile for All Jobs 2002 and 2011 Sector Employment Workforce Difference Ratio Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 413 0.4% 294 0.2% 119 28.8% 1.40 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 155 0.2% 74 0.1% 81 52.3% 2.09 Utilities 700 0.7% 780 0.6% -80 -11.4% 0.90 Construction 3,731 3.8% 4,991 3.8% -1,260 -33.8% 0.75 Manufacturing 11,935 12.1% 16,686 12.7% -4,751 -39.8% 0.72 Wholesale Trade 5,438 5.5% 5,715 4.4% -277 -5.1% 0.95 Retail Trade 12,666 12.9% 15,035 11.5% -2,369 -18.7% 0.84 Transportation and Warehousing 2,540 2.6% 3,261 2.5% -721 -28.4% 0.78 Information 1,367 1.4% 2,933 2.2% -1,566 -114.6% 0.47 Finance and Insurance 2,697 2.7% 6,410 4.9% -3,713 -137.7% 0.42 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 933 0.9% 1,543 1.2% -610 -65.4% 0.60 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 5,008 5.1% 6,222 4.8% -1,214 -24.2% 0.80 Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,029 1.0% 2,114 1.6% -1,085 -105.4% 0.49 Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 4,167 4.2% 6,136 4.7% -1,969 -47.3% 0.68 Educational Services 11,400 11.6% 14,524 11.1% -3,124 -27.4% 0.78 Health Care and Social Assistance 19,921 20.2% 24,642 18.8% -4,721 -23.7% 0.81 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,170 1.2% 1,730 1.3% -560 -47.9% 0.68 Accommodation and Food Services 5,810 5.9% 8,196 6.3% -2,386 -41.1% 0.71 Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 3,806 3.9% 4,737 3.6% -931 -24.5% 0.80 Public Administration 3,567 3.6% 4,945 3.8% -1,378 -38.6% 0.72 Total All Jobs 98,453 100.0% 130,968 100.0% -32,515 -33.0% 0.75 7 Figure 3. Net Difference Between CNVR Workers and Employed CNVR Residents, by Sector: 2011 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, On The Map, LODES Dataset: Area Profile for All Jobs 2002 and 2011 -4,751 -4,721 -3,713 -3,124 -2,386 -2,369 -1,969 -1,566 -1,378 -1,260 -1,214 -1,085 -931 -721 -610 -560 -277 -80 81 119 -5,000 -4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000Agriculture, F orestry, Fishing a nd HuntingMini ng, Qua rrying, and Oil and G as Extraction Utilit iesWholesal e TradeArts, Enterta inment, and Recreation Real Estate and R ental a nd Leas ing Tra nsportation and Wa rehousingOther Services (excluding Public Administrati on) Ma nagement of Companies and Enterpris esProfess ional, Scientific, and Technical Servi ces ConstructionPublic Administration InformationAdmini stration & Support, Wa ste M anag ement and Remedia tion Reta il TradeAccommo da tion a nd Food Services Educa tiona l ServicesFina nce and I nsuranceHealth C are and Social Ass ista nce Ma nufacturing 8 Table 3. Location Quotients in the CNVR, by Sector: 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, On The Map, LODES Dataset: Area Profile for All Jobs, 2011 Employment (2011) Location Quotients Sector Regional State Count Percent Count Percent State National Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 413 0.4% 4,503 0.3% 1.5 0.5 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 155 0.2% 534 0.0% 4.8 0.3 Utilities 700 0.7% 8649 0.6% 1.3 1.1 Construction 3,731 3.8% 51,703 3.3% 1.2 0.9 Manufacturing 11,935 12.1% 172,367 11.1% 1.1 1.3 Wholesale Trade 5,438 5.5% 65,808 4.2% 1.4 1.3 Retail Trade 12,666 12.9% 174,890 11.3% 1.2 1.1 Transportation and Warehousing 2,540 2.6% 40,380 2.6% 1.0 0.8 Information 1,367 1.4% 36,415 2.3% 0.6 0.6 Finance and Insurance 2,697 2.7% 118,683 7.6% 0.4 0.6 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 933 0.9% 19340 1.2% 0.8 0.6 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 5,008 5.1% 90,029 5.8% 0.9 0.8 Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,029 1.0% 30,925 2.0% 0.5 0.7 Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 4,167 4.2% 81,512 5.2% 0.8 0.7 Educational Services 11,400 11.6% 183,975 11.8% 1.0 1.2 Health Care and Social Assistance 19,921 20.2% 265,251 17.1% 1.2 1.4 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,170 1.2% 41,462 2.7% 0.5 0.7 Accommodation and Food Services 5,810 5.9% 109,602 7.1% 0.9 0.7 Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 3,806 3.9% 58,116 3.7% 1.1 1.1 Public Administration 3,567 3.6% 59,124 3.7% 1.0 0.7 Total All Jobs 98,453 100.0% 1,554,144 100.0% – – 9 Figure 4. Employment Growth and Job Concentration in the CNVR Relative to State, by Sector: 2002 -2011 Low Concentration Shrinking Employment Low Concentration Growing Employment High Concentration Shrinking Employment High Concentration Growing Employment Average Annual Change in Employment: 2002 to 2011 Job Concentration Relative to State This figure shows average annual change in employment from 2002 to 2011 and job concentration (LQs) relative to the state. Th e figure is divided up into four quadrants based on job concentration (higher or lower than state) and employment change (growing or shrinking). Bubbles are scaled by the number of employees in each sector. Larger bubbles indicate sectors with larger employment . Bubbles are colored based on their NAICS super -sector classification. 10 Table 4. CNVR Employment Shift -Share Relative to State, by Sector: 2002 -2011 Sector Regional Employment State Employment Employment Shift -Share 2002 2011 Change Percent Change Percent Change Total State Growth State Industry Trends Regional Share Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 433 413 -20 -4.6% -16.6% 0.5 -72.4 51.9 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 170 155 -15 -8.8% -18.3% 0.2 -31.4 16.2 Utilities 429 700 271 63.2% -11.8% 0.5 -51.0 321.5 Construction 4,909 3,731 -1,178 -24.0% -18.9% 5.4 -931.9 -251.5 Manufacturing 17,510 11,935 -5575 -31.8% -21.3% 19.2 -3,755.2 -1,839.1 Wholesale Trade 5,384 5,438 54 1.0% -1.9% 5.9 -109.3 157.4 Retail Trade 12,985 12,666 -319 -2.5% -7.2% 14.3 -948.5 615.2 Transportation and Warehousing 2,722 2,540 -182 -6.7% 3.7% 3.0 97.4 -282.4 Information 1,874 1,367 -507 -27.1% -17.7% 2.1 -333.3 -175.8 Finance and Insurance 3,295 2,697 -598 -18.1% 0.6% 3.6 14.7 -616.3 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 1,145 933 -212 -18.5% -8.7% 1.3 -100.4 -112.9 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 5,746 5,008 -738 -12.8% -1.5% 6.3 -92.7 -651.6 Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,117 1,029 -88 -7.9% 12.1% 1.2 133.9 -223.2 Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 3,875 4,167 292 7.5% 1.8% 4.3 65.5 222.3 Educational Services 9,951 11,400 1,449 14.6% 15.7% 10.9 1,553.1 -115.0 Health Care and Social Assistance 18,509 19,921 1,412 7.6% 18.8% 20.3 3,463.2 -2,071.6 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,245 1,170 -75 -6.0% -5.5% 1.4 -69.5 -6.9 Accommodation and Food Services 5,544 5,810 266 4.8% 13.9% 6.1 762.7 -502.8 Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 3,187 3,806 619 19.4% 6.8% 3.5 213.6 401.9 Total—All Industries 103,553 98,453 -5,100 -4.9% 0.1% 109.8 -191.4 -5,062.4 Sectors highlighted in green have performed much better than state and industry trends from 2002 to 2011 Sectors highlighted in red performed much worse than state and industry trends from 2002 to 2011 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, On The Map, LODES Dataset: Area Profile for All Jobs, 2002 and 2011 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2002 and 2011 11 Table 5. CNVR Employment Shift -Share Relative to Nation, by Sector: 2002 -2011 Sectors highlighted in green have performed better than national and industry trends from 2002 to 2011 Sectors highlighted in red performed much worse than national and industry trends from 2002 to 2011 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, On The Map, LODES Dataset: Area Profile for All Jobs, 2002 and 2011 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2002 and 2011 Sector Regional Employment National Employment Employment Shift -Share 2002 2011 Change Percent Change Percent Change Total National Growth National Industry Trends Regional Share Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 433 413 -20 -4.6% 0.4% 3.9 -62.8 38.9 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 170 155 -15 -8.8% 44.3% 1.6 66.1 -82.7 Utilities 429 700 271 63.2% -7.1% 3.9 -9.5 276.6 Construction 4,909 3,731 -1,178 -24.0% -18.1% 44.8 -913.7 -309.1 Manufacturing 17,510 11,935 -5,575 -31.8% -23.1% 159.7 -4,307.1 -1,427.6 Wholesale Trade 5,384 5,438 54 1.0% -1.3% 49.1 -264.0 268.9 Retail Trade 12,985 12,666 -319 -2.5% -2.3% 118.4 -224.8 -212.7 Transportation and Warehousing 2,722 2,540 -182 -6.7% 1.7% 24.8 374.5 -581.3 Information 1,874 1,367 -507 -27.1% -20.5% 17.1 -236.9 -287.2 Finance and Insurance 3,295 2,697 -598 -18.1% -3.0% 30.1 -301.3 -326.8 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 1,145 933 -212 -18.5% -5.8% 10.4 -67.0 -155.4 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 5,746 5,008 -738 -12.8% 15.3% 52.4 668.2 -1,458.6 Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,117 1,029 -88 -7.9% 12.9% 10.2 -7.2 -91.0 Administration & Support, Waste Management and Remediation 3,875 4,167 292 7.5% 1.6% 35.3 473.9 -217.3 Educational Services 9,951 11,400 1,449 14.6% 30.5% 90.8 2,430.0 -1,071.7 Health Care and Social Assistance 18,509 19,921 1,412 7.6% 23.1% 168.8 3,755.2 -2,512.1 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,245 1,170 -75 -6.0% 6.9% 11.4 128.4 -214.7 Accommodation and Food Services 5,544 5,810 266 4.8% 11.5% 50.6 781.1 -565.6 Other Services (excluding Public Administration) 3,187 3,806 619 19.4% 3.8% 29.1 -169.2 759.1 Total—All Industries 103,553 98,453 -5,100 -4.9% 0.6% 912.5 2,113.9 -8,170.3 12 Industries No Yes No Lagging Performer Yes Strong Performer No Poor Performer Yes Constrained Performer Screen 1: Does the industry have high job concentration indicated by a location quotient of higher than 1.0? Screen 2: Is the industry experiencing regional employment growth? High Priority Retention Target Current Strength Limited Prospect due to local weaknesses Limited Prospect due to external trends Limited Prospect due to weak base and declining competitive- ness Emerging Strength Limited Prospect overall Limited Prospect due to weak base and external trends Sources: McLean, Mary L. and Kenneth P. Voytek (1992). Understanding Your Economy. Planners Press Figure 5. Industry Targeting Analysis, Decision Tree: Identifying Economic Strengths and Weaknesses No Lagging Performer Yes Strong Performer No Poor Performer Yes Constrained Performer No Yes No Yes Screen 3: Does the industry have a positive regional share as seen with shift -share analysis? Lower Priority Retention Targets 13 Regional St reng t hs Current Strengths Current Strengths refer to sectors of the regional economy that have higher job concentration than the state and national averages (location quotient of 1.1 or higher), employment growth of 50 or more employees from 2002 to 2011, and a positive regional share in the shift -share analysis. This indicates that a sector has high job concentra- tion, high growth, and has become more competitive from 2002 to 2011. High Priority Retention Targets High Priority Retention Targets are strong economic sectors that are in danger of becoming less competitive. They are characterized by high job concentration relative to the state and national averages (location quotient of higher than 1.0), job growth of 50 or more employees from 2002 to 2011, and a negative regional share in the shift -share analysis. The negative regional share indicates that the sector is losing competitiveness. Emerging Strengths Emerging Strength sectors have low job concentration relative to the state and national averages (location quotient of less than 1.1), job growth of 50 or more employees from 2002 to 2011, and a positive regional share in the shift – share analysis. This indicates that while the sector has lower job concentration relative to the state and nation, it is growing and has become more competitive from 2002 to 2011. Relative to State Relative to Nation  Wholesale Trade  Wholesale Trade  Utilities  Utilities  Other Services  Other Services Relative to State Relative to Nation  Health Care & Social Assistance  Health Care & Social Assistance  Educational Services  Educational Services Relative to State Relative to Nation  Administration and Support, Waste Management and Remediation 14 Goods Producing Sectors 15 Agri c ultu re , Fo res tr y, Fis hing, & Hu nting Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State The agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sector has 413 employees in the CNVR, constituting 0.4% of all jobs. Nearly all of the region’s employment is found in Cheshire, which is home to several commercial greenhouses and nurse- ries. Forestry, hunting, and fishing employment in the region is negligible. Statewide, greenhouses and nurseries account for 49% of all agricultural re- ceiptsᵃ. While agriculture is a small sector in terms of employment, its secondary impacts such as tourism, environmental benefits, and food security solidify its importance. Regional, state, and local plans of conservation and development all list farmland preservation as an important goal. From 2002 to 2011, employment in the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sector contracted by 4.6%, resulting in a loss of 20 jobs. Despite a projected de- cline ( -0.6%) in employment on the national level from 2010 to 2020, statewide employment in the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sector is projected to grow at 14.8%. Local farmers markets and the statewide CT Grown Program have helped lead a resurgence in locally produced agricultural products. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 413 Employment Change (2002 -2011): – 4.6% Percent of Employment: 0.4% Location Quotient: 1.1 Number of Establishments: 9 Average Establishment Size: 37 Average Annual Wage: $30,009 Median Worker Age (Years): 47.5 ∙ Crop production ∙ Animal production ∙ Forestry and logging ∙ Support activities for agriculture & forestry -0.6% Decline 14.8% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Agr ic ult ur e, Forest ry , Hunt ing, and Fishin g Employ me nt in t he CNVR: 2011 ᵃ Economic Impacts of Connecticut’s Agricultural Industry (2010), The CT for Economic Analysis Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 16 Qua rr yi ng, Mi ni ng, an d Oil & G as E x tra ct i on Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Like Connecticut as a whole, the quarrying, mining, and oil & gas extraction sec- tor is a minor player in the Central Naugatuck Valley economy. Nationally, it was the fastest growing sector from 2002 to 2011 due to the discovery of large natu- ral gas deposits in Appalachia and the Western United States. Statewide, most of the employment in this sector is in quarrying. The quarrying, mining, and oil & gas extraction sector is the smallest sector of the region’s economy, with just 115 employees, or 0.2% of total. A vast majority of the employment is located in the northern part of Southbury. It has the highest location quotient of any sector, with 4.8, meaning it is 4.8 times more concen- trated in the region than it is statewide. However, the location quotients are skewed because the sector has so few jobs statewide. Despite the high location quotient, the quarrying, mining, and oil & gas extraction sector will continue to be minor player in the region’s economy. The state is pushing a Comprehensive Energy Strategy to make natural gas available to an additional 300,000 Connecti- cut homes and businesses by 2020. The jobs created by this initiative will primari- ly involve the construction of new infrastructure and the transportation of natu- ral gas to market. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 155 Employment Change (2002 -2011): – 8.8% Percent of Employment: 0.2% Location Quotient: 4.8 Number of Establishments: 3 Average Establishment Size: 5 Average Annual Wage: $17,021 Median Worker Age (Years): 41.5 ∙ Non -metallic mineral mining & quarrying 4.0% Growth 2.5% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Q uarry in g, Mining, an d O il & Gas Ext rac t io n Employ me nt in t he CNVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 17 Manu fac tu ring Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Manufacturing has historically been the backbone of the Central Naugatuck Val- ley economy, but has changed dramatically over the last half century with plas- tics replacing brass and other metals, and manufacturing jobs moving to lower cost locations in the Southern United States and abroad. Despite sharp declines in employment over the last several decades, nationwide manufacturing output has stayed relatively stable and worker productivity has increased significantly. Traditionally concentrated in central cities, many manufacturers are now located in suburban towns where undeveloped land is more readily available. Tripper bus service connects the City of Waterbury to industrial parks in surrounding towns. In 2011, there were 11,935 manufacturing jobs, representing 12.1% of the re- gion’s total employment. However, from 2002 to 2011, manufacturing employ- ment in the region contracted by -31.8%, resulting in a loss of 5,575 jobs. Both state and national projections show manufacturing employment staying relative- ly stable from 2010 to 2020, with decreases of –0.6% and –2.3% respectively. The median age for manufacturing workers is 44.7 years old, one of the oldest median ages of any sector. Partnerships with higher education, such as NVCC’s Advanced Manufacturing Technology Center, are working to replace an aging manufacturing workforce with a younger generation of skilled employees. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 11,935 Employment Change (2002 -2011): – 31.8% Percent of Employment: 12.1% Location Quotient: 1.1 Number of Establishments: 507 Average Establishment Size: 23 Average Annual Wage: $62,053 Median Worker Age (Years): 44.7 ∙ Fabricated Metal Products ∙ Computers and Electronics ∙ Transportation Equipment ∙ Machinery Manufacturing – 0.6% Decline – 2.3% Decline State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Manuf ac t ur ing Empl oy ment in t he C NVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 18 Cons truc ti on Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State In 2011, there were 3,731 workers in the construction sector, representing 3.8% of the region’s employment. With a location quotient of 1.2, it is slightly more concentrated in the Central Naugatuck Valley Region than the state as a whole. Small construction businesses are scattered throughout the region and larger establishments are concentrated near industrial parks in Cheshire, Naugatuck, Waterbury, and Watertown. The average annual wage for the construction sec- tor is $56,656, which is higher than the regional average. Similar to state and national trends, the construction industry has been hard hit by the late 2000s housing bubble and recession. The sector saw regional employ- ment drop by 24% from 2002 to 2011, resulting in a loss of 1,178 jobs. A majority of construction job losses can be attributed to the slowing of residential con- struction. The number of new housing units built in the region has dropped from a high of 894 in 2005 to just 151 in 2012. From 2010 and 2020, state and national projections show growth rates of 20.0% and 33.3% respectively. Even with a 20.0% increase up to 2020, the number of construction jobs will still fall short of their pre -recession levels. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 3,731 Employment Change (2002 -2011): – 24.0% Percent of Employment: 3.8% Location Quotient: 1.2 Number of Establishments: 656 Average Establishment Size: 5 Average Annual Wage: $56,656 Median Worker Age (Years): 42.6 ∙ Specialty Trade Construction ∙ Construction of Buildings ∙ Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction 33.3% Growth 20.0% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 C onst ruc t i on Empl oy ment in t he C NVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 19 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 20 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Whol esale Trade The wholesale trade sector is one the region’s current economic strengths rela- tive to the state and nation. It has seen a gain in employment from 2002 to 2011, has a higher job concentration than the state and nation, and has seen a positive regional employment share. Located at the crossroads of I -84, I -691, and Route 8, the Central Naugatuck Valley’s location offers easy access to major markets in Connecticut as well as the New York and Boston metropolitan areas. A particular- ly high concentration of wholesale trade employment can be found in the Chesh- ire Industrial Park, adjacent to the I -84/ I-691 interchange. In 2011, the sector had 5,438 employees, accounting for 5.5% of the region’s em- ployment. With a location quotient of 1.4, the wholesale trade sector has the highest concentration of any major sector of the region’s economy. From 2002 to 2011, wholesale trade employment grew by 1.0%. Both state and national pro- jections show the sector growing from 2010 to 2020, with increases of 9.9% and 13.6% respectively. The I -84 widening projects and I -84/Route 8 Interchange pro- ject will help alleviate traffic congestion in the Central Naugatuck Valley and could bolster our region’s comparative advantages as a wholesale trade center. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 5,438 Employment Change (2002 -2011): 1.0% Percent of Employment 5.5% Location Quotient: 1.4 Number of Establishments: 541 Average Establishment Size: 10 Average Annual Wage: $63,904 Median Worker Age : 43.8 ∙ Electronic Markets, Agents, and Brokers ∙ Wholesalers—Durable Goods ∙ Wholesalers— Non-durable Goods 13.6% Growth 9.9% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Wholes ale Trade Emp loy ment in t he C NVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 21 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Retai l Tra d e Retail trade is the second largest sector of the Central Naugatuck Valley econo- my, with 12,666 employees, comprising 12.9% of the region’s workforce. Water- bury, which is home to the Brass Mill Center Mall, has the highest concentration of retail trade employment followed by Cheshire, Naugatuck, Southbury, and Watertown. Retail trade workers are among the youngest (median age of 37.9 years old) and have the second lowest average wage ($26,849) of any sector. The retail trade sector was hard -hit by the late 2000s recession due to declines in discretionary income and lower retail sales. From 2002 to 2011, retail trade em- ployment declined by 2.5%, resulting in a loss of 319 jobs. Job losses peaked in 2008 and 2009 and have remained relatively stagnant since. However, as the economy continues to recover from recession, employment is expected to in- crease. Projections show the sector growing by 12.3% nationally and 5.1% statewide between 2010 and 2020. State projections show furniture stores (24.9%) and lawn and garden stores (16.5%)having the largest employment gains and book and music stores ( -42.3%) and department stores ( -15.7%) having the sharpest declines. The declining subsectors can be attributed to the rise of e – commerce, especially for smaller items such as books, music, and clothing. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 12,666 Employment Change (2002 -2011): – 2.5% Percent of Employment: 12.9% Location Quotient: 1.2 Number of Establishments: 851 Average Establishment Size: 14 Average Annual Wage: $26,849 Median Worker Age (Years): 37.9 ∙ Food and Beverage Stores ∙ General Merchandise Stores ∙ Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers ∙ Clothing and Accessories Stores 12.3% Growth 5.1% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Ret ail Trad e Employ m ent in t he C NVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 22 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Trans por ta tion and Ware housi ng The transportation and warehousing sector had an employment of 2,540 in 2011, representing 2.6% of regional employment. The largest concentrations of trans- portation and warehousing employment can be found in industrial parks in Cheshire, Naugatuck, Oxford, and Watertown near Route 8, I -84, I -691 and Wa- terbury -Oxford Airport. Like the wholesale trade sector, the transportation and warehousing sector is closely tied to the transportation system. Despite the re- gion’s central location relative to major markets in the Northeast, it has per- formed poorly over the last decade. From 2002 to 2011, regional employment in the transportation and warehousing sector declined by 6.7%, a loss of 182 jobs. During that same time period, the state as a whole added 1,436 jobs, an increase of 3.7%. From 2010 to 2020 the sector is projected to grow by 20.4% nationally and 13.4% statewide. Some of the highest concentrations of transportation and warehousing employment in the state can be found near airports such as Bradley International in Windsor Locks, and general aviation airports such as Hartford -Brainard, Groton-New Lon- don, and Sikorsky Memorial in Stratford. The Waterbury -Oxford Airport and its newly designated airport incentive zone have potential to become a growth pole for transportation and warehouse employment in the state. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 2,540 Employment Change (2002 -2011): – 6.7% Percent of Employment: 2.6% Location Quotient: 1.0 Number of Establishments: 108 Average Establishment Size: 14 Average Annual Wage: $46,953 Median Worker Age (Years): 46.2 ∙ Truck Transportation ∙ Transit & Ground Passenger Transport ∙ Warehousing and Storage 20.4% Growth 13.2% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Transp ort a t ion and Ware housi ng Empl oy ment in t he C NVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 23 Utili t ies Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State As of 2011, the utilities sector had 700 employees, representing 0.7% of the re- gion’s workforce. The sector was identified as one of the three current strengths of the region’s economy, but its small employment make it an unlikely source of future economic growth. The highest concentrations of employment are found in Waterbury and Cheshire, with smaller concentrations in Naugatuck and Middle- bury. With a location quotient of 1.3, job concentration was higher than the state as a whole. From 2002 to 2011, utilities grew faster than any sector (63.2%), resulting in 271 new jobs. During that same time period, the sector declined by 11.8% statewide. Projections show employment declining 0.6% nationally and 11.3% statewide from 2010 to 2020. Renewable energy and natural gas will be two emerging utili- ties up to 2020. The 2013 Connecticut Comprehensive Energy Strategy aims to make natural gas available to an additional 300,000 Connecticut homes and busi- nesses by 2020. In addition to lower energy costs, the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) anticipates that natural gas expansion could create up to 7,000 jobs in the utilities and construction sectorsᵃ. In addition, the state’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) calls for 20% of the state’s electricity to be produced by renewable resources by 2020 ᵃ. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 700 Employment Change (2002 -2011): 63.2% Percent of Employment: 0.7% Location Quotient: 1.3 Number of Establishments: 4 Average Establishment Size: 60 Average Annual Wage: $114,610 Median Worker Age (Years): 46.7 ∙ Electric power generation & transmission ∙ Natural gas distribution ∙ Water, sewage, and other systems -0.6% Decline – 11.3% Decline State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 U t ilit ies Employ ment in t he C NVR: 2011 ᵃ 2013 Connecticut Comprehensive Energy Strategy. Connecticut DEEP. Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 24 Financial Activities and Information 25 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Finan ce an d In s ura nc e Finance and insurance is one of the most important sectors of Connecticut’s economy. Connecticut has the highest concentration of insurance employment in the nation, much of which is located in the Greater Hartford Region. The insur- ance cluster hasn’t spilled over to the Central Naugatuck Valley and many region- al banks have consolidated in the last few decades. Finance and insurance has the lowest location quotient (0.4) out of any sector of the region’s economy, meaning it has a very low concentration of jobs relative to the state as a whole. In 2011, there were 2,697 finance and insurance jobs in the region, representing 2.7% of the total. By comparison, Greater Hartford had 56,932 finance and insur- ance employees (12.7% of total). Many CNVR residents employed in the finance and insurance sectors commute to jobs in Greater Hartford or Fairfield County. From 2002 to 2011, finance and insurance employment declined by 18.1% re- sulting in a loss of 598 jobs. During that same time period, the sector grew statewide. Between 2010 and 2020, national and state projections show growth rates of 10.2% and 5.0% respectively. Transportation projects such as the I -84 widening project and CT Fastrak will improve connections with Greater Hartford and could allow the Central Naugatuck Valley to draw on a skilled finance and insurance workforce. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 2,697 Employment Change (2002 -2011): – 18.1% Percent of Employment: 2.7% Location Quotient: 0.4 Number of Establishments: 314 Average Establishment Size: 8 Average Annual Wage: $70,607 Median Worker Age (Years): 42.7 ∙ Credit intermediation ∙ Insurance carriers ∙ Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles 10.2% Growth 5.0% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Financ e an d Insura nc e Employ m ent in t he C NVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 26 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Real Esta t e and Rent al an d Lea sing The real estate and rental and leasing sector had 933 employees in 2011, com- prising 0.9% of the region’s total. The largest clusters of employment can be found in the Heritage Village section of Southbury and in Waterbury. From 2007 to 2011, 68.2% of CNVR residents lived in owner -occupied housing units while 31.8% lived in renter -occupied units. The majority of renter -housing units are found in Waterbury. Like the construction sector, the real estate and rental and leasing sector has been hard hit by the late 2000s housing crisis and recession. An analysis of home sales in the Waterbury Labor Market area found that there were 330 home sales in 2012, down from a high of 716 in 2004ᵃ. As a result, regional employment con- tracted by 18.5% from 2002 to 2011, a loss of 212 jobs. During this same period, the state saw an 8.7% decline. As the housing market recovers, the sector is pro- jected to grow at both the state (9.3%) and national (10.2%) levels from 2010 to 2020. Rental and leasing services is projected to be the fastest growing subsector statewide. Two population groups will drive rental housing demand over the coming decades. Many retiring baby boomers are shifting to the rental market and younger generations (“echo boomers”) are purchasing homes at a slower rate than their predecessors. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 933 Employment Change (2002 -2011): – 18.5% Percent of Employment: 0.9% Location Quotient: 0.8 Number of Establishments: 202 Average Establishment Size: 4 Average Annual Wage: $39,252 Median Worker Age (Years): 47.1 ∙ Real estate ∙ Rental and leasing services ∙ Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets 10.2% Growth 9.3% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Real Est at e and Rent al and Leasin g Empl oy m ent in t he C NVR: 2011 ᵃ Center for Real Estate and Urban Economic Studies, University of Connecticut Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 27 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Info rmatio n There are 1,367 employees in the information sector in the CNVR, or 1.4% of the total. The highest concentration of information sector jobs is found in Waterbury, which is home to regional media outlets. The Central Naugatuck Valley is part of a larger television media market that includes Hartford and New Haven. Many media companies locate in Connecticut’s larger cities, which can partially explain the low job concentration (LQ of 0.6) relative to the state. The information sector has changed dramatically over the last decade with the growing importance of digital media. The result has been declines in traditional information services (such as print media) and gains in web -based information services. The largest collection of information employment in the state is located in neighboring Bristol, which is home to ESPN’s headquarters. Employment in the CNVR contracted by 27.1% from 2002 to 2011, resulting in a loss of 507 jobs. Dur- ing that same time period, the sector contracted by 17.7% statewide. From 2010 to 2020, employment is projected to grow by 5.2% nationally and just 1.2% statewide. State projections show declines in publishing industries and telecom- munications, and gains in internet service providers and broadcasting. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 1,367 Employment Change (2002 -2011): – 27.1% Percent of Employment: 1.4% Location Quotient: 0.6 Number of Establishments: 59 Average Establishment Size: 14 Average Annual Wage: $56,833 Median Worker Age (Years): 41.4 ∙ Publishing Industries ∙ Telecommunications ∙ ISPs, search portals, & data processing 5.2% Growth 1.2% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Infor mat i o n Employ m ent in t he C NVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 28 Professional and Business Services 29 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Pro fe ssion al, S ci entifi c , an d Tec hnica l Se r vices The professional, scientific, and technical services sector employed 5,008 people in the Central Naugatuck Valley, representing 5.1% of the region’s employment. The largest concentration of employment is in Southbury, home to an IBM corpo- rate center. Other concentrations can be found along Route 10 in Cheshire and in downtown Waterbury. The sector has high educational requirements and a ma- jority of the occupations require a college degree. The sector contracted by 12.8% from 2002 to 2011, a loss of 738 jobs. Some of the job loss can be attributed to downsizing at IBM’s Southbury office in the last decade. Comparatively, the state as a whole saw a 1.5% decline in the sector a loss of 1,375 jobs. The sector is projected to grow by 19.4% in the state from 2010 to 2020, making it one of the fastest growing sectors of the state economy. The largest gains are projected to be in computer systems design (38.3%) and scientific research and development services (34.5%). The State of Connecticut has instituted two industry cluster initiatives in the professional, scientific, and technical services sector: Bioscience and Software & Information Technology. The cluster initiatives are aimed at key industries that will drive future economic growth in the state. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 5,008 Employment Change (2002 -2011): – 12.8% Percent of Employment: 5.1% Location Quotient: 0.9 Number of Establishments: 495 Average Establishment Size: 5 Average Annual Wage: $54,313 Median Worker Age (Years): 43.4 ∙ Accounting, tax prep, and payroll ∙ Legal services ∙ Architectural, and engineering services ∙ Computer systems design 29.0% Growth 19.4% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Professi on al, S c ient ific , and Tec hnic al S erv ic es Employ me nt in t he CNVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 30 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Mana geme nt o f Companie s & E nte rp rises The management of companies and enterprises sector makes up just 1.0% of the region’s employment, with 1,029 jobs. With a location quotient of 0.5, the job concentration means that sector is much more prevalent in other parts of the state. For example, the management of companies and enterprises sector consti- tutes 3.3% of all employment in Fairfield County (LQ of 1.7). The highest concen- tration of employment in the CNVR can be found in Middlebury which is home to Timex Group and Chemtura. Other concentrations can be found in Naugatuck, Thomaston, and Waterbury. The sector has an average annual wage of $112,649, the second highest of any sector. From 2002 to 2011, the employment in the management of companies and en- terprises sector declined by 7.9%, resulting in a loss of 88 jobs. During that same time period, the sector grew by 12.1% statewide. National and state projections both show modest growths from 2010 to 2020 with 5.9% and 4.2% growth rates respectively. Since corporate headquarters are located in larger metropolitan areas (New York, Boston, Hartford, and Fairfield County), the region will struggle to attract outside companies and should instead focus on maintaining existing companies that have strong historic ties to the area. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 1,029 Employment Change (2002 -2011): – 7.9% Percent of Employment: 1.0% Location Quotient: 0.5 Number of Establishments: 18 Average Establishment Size: 41 Average Annual Wage: $112,649 Median Worker Age (Years): 45.2 ∙ Management of companies & enterprises 5.9% Growth 4.2% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Man ageme nt of C om panies an d Ent erprise s Employ me nt in t he CNVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 31 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentra- tion Relative to Admi nist ration & Su ppo r t , Was te Mana geme nt & Reme diati on The administration and support, waste management and remediation sector was identified as an emerging strength of the region’s economy. With 4,167 employ- ees in 2011, it comprised 4.2% of the region’s employment. High concentrations of employment are found in Beacon Falls*, Waterbury, Middlebury, Naugatuck, and Cheshire. The sector was identified as being an emerging strength relative to the state as a whole, indicating that it has become more competitive in the last decade but still has a lower job concentration compared to the state and nation. The administration and support, waste management and remediation sector grew by 7.5% from 2002 to 2011 resulting in 292 new jobs. It was the largest of the four sectors of the region’s economy to grow at a faster rate than the state. The sector is projected to grow nationally (21.2%) and statewide (15.4%) from 2010 to 2020. Employment in the remediation and other waste services subsec- tor is projected to be nearly double the statewide figure. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 4,167 Employment Change (2002 -2011): 7.5% Percent of Employment: 4.2% Location Quotient: 0.8 Number of Establishments: 290 Average Establishment Size: 9 Average Annual Wage: $33,319 Median Worker Age (Years): 41.3 ∙ Employment services ∙ Services to buildings and dwellings ∙ Waste collection ∙ Remediation and other waste services 21.2% Growth 15.4% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Administ ra t ion & S upport , W ast e Mana gem ent & Remediat ion Employ me nt in t he CNVR: 2011 * After reviewing other employment datasets, COGCNV staff has concerns about the validity of the large employment concentration in Beacon Falls Sou rces: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 32 Picture of Southbury Training School Education and Health Services 33 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Healt h Ca re and So ci al As sista n ce Health care and social assistance is the largest employment sector in the Central Naugatuck Valley, with 19,921 jobs (20.2% of total employment). Employment is concentrated in the City of Waterbury, home of St. Mary’s Hospital and Water- bury Hospital, with other centers in Cheshire and Southbury. The health care and social assistance sector is resilient and historically has been immune from eco- nomic downturns. The sector even saw employment increases during the late 2000s economic recession, despite significant declines in other sectors. The health care and social assistance sector grew by 7.6% from 2002 to 2011, an increase of 1,412 jobs. It is projected to be the fastest growing sector of the state and national economies between 2010 and 2020, with 21.6% growth statewide and 34.4% growth nationally. Personal care aides, registered nurses, and home health aides are projected to be three of the four fastest growing occupations over that same time period. The aging of the baby boomers will dramatically in- crease the demand for health care and social services in the next decade. The region’s population of persons age 65 years and older is projected to increase from 41,774 in 2010 to 55,889 in 2020, an increase of 33.8%. State and national healthcare policy has expanded insurance coverage and will further increase de- mand for health care and social services. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 19,921 Employment Change (2002 -2011): 7.6% Percent of Employment: 20.2% Location Quotient: 1.2 Number of Establishments: 744 Average Establishment Size: 24 Average Annual Wage: $42,654 Median Worker Age (Years): 43.2 ∙ Ambulatory health care services ∙ Hospitals ∙ Nursing and residential care facilities ∙ Social assistance 34.4% Growth 21.6% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Healt h C ar e & S oc ial Assist anc e Employ me nt in t he CNVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 34 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Edu c ation al Se r vi ce s Educational services is the fourth largest sector of the region’s economy with 11,400 jobs, comprising 11.6% of total employment. 2,076 educational services jobs (18.2%) were private sector while the remaining 9,324 (81.8%) were public sector. Like health care and social services, the educational services sector is more resilient to economic fluctuations than many other sectors, and employ- ment increased during the Great Recession. The educational services sector had the highest growth from 2002 to 2011, in- creasing by 14.6% and resulting in 1,449 new jobs. National and state employ- ment projections show continued growth in the sector from 2010 to 2020, with growth rates of 26.0% and 12.5% respectively. However, during that same time period, regional population projections show the number of persons under the age of 20 declining by 8.8% from 75,946 in 2010 to 69,254 in 2020. This could lead to smaller school enrollments and lower demand for public school teachers. The region has three higher -education institutions with a combined enrollment of approximately 8,800 students: Naugatuck Valley Community College, the Uni- versity of Connecticut—Waterbury, and Post University. Emerging sectors such as bioscience, nanotechnology, and advanced manufacturing rely on higher edu- cation for both research and development and workforce training. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 11,400 Employment Change (2002 -2011): 14.6% Percent of Employment: 11.6% Location Quotient: 1.0 Number of Establishments: 85 Average Establishment Size:* 20 Average Annual Wage:* $40,882 Median Worker Age (Years): 44.4 ∙ Elementary and secondary school teachers ∙ Teacher assistants ∙ Colleges, universities, & professional ∙ Other schools and instruction 26.0% Growth 12.5% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Educ at ion a l S erv ic es Employ me nt in t he CNVR: 2011 * Only includes private -sector employment Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics * 35 Leisure and Hospitality 36 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Ar t s, Ente r tain ment, a nd R ecrea tion The arts, entertainment, and recreation sector had 1,170 employees, comprising 1.2% of the region’s total. Downtown Waterbury had the highest concentration of employment followed by Watertown, Middlebury, and Cheshire. With a loca- tion quotient of 0.5, job concentration is much lower than the state as a whole, suggesting that CNVR residents travel to other parts of the state for arts, enter- tainment, and recreation. Over one -third of all employees in the sector work at the state’s two casinos: Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun, which can partially explain the low location quotient. Average annual wages were $20,320, making it the one of the lowest paying sectors of the region’s economy. From 2002 to 2011, the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector lost 75 jobs, a 6.0% decline. This is similar to the 5.5% decline seen statewide. The high unem- ployment rate and ensuing decline in consumer spending during the last reces- sion can largely explain the declines in employment. As the region recovers from the recession and consumer spending increases, job growth is expected statewide (8.8%) and nationally (18.1%) from 2010 to 2020. Job growth in the sector is often a result of multiplier effects from other sectors. If other sectors of the economy are doing well and income increases, households will have more discretionary income to spend on arts, entertainment and recreation. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 1,170 Employment Change (2002 -2011): – 6.0% Percent of Employment: 1.2% Location Quotient: 0.5 Number of Establishments: 62 Average Establishment Size: 11 Average Annual Wage: $20,320 Median Worker Age (Years): 38.2 ∙ Amusement, gambling, and recreation ∙ Performing arts and spectator sports ∙ Museums and historical sites 18.1% Growth 8.8% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Art s, Ent er t ainment , & Rec reat ion Empl oy ment in t he C NVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 37 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Acco mmo datio n an d Foo d Se r vices The accommodation and food services sector comprises 4.8% of the region’s em- ployment with 5,810 jobs. Employment patterns closely follow population and retail patterns with the highest concentration in Waterbury, and smaller concen- trations in Southbury, Naugatuck, Cheshire, and Watertown. With an average annual wage of $15,677, the sector has the lowest pay of any sector in the re- gion. Coincidentally, the median age of workers is 30.0 years, the youngest of any sector. The accommodation and food services sector was one of the few sectors to grow from 2002 from 2011, adding 266 jobs, an increase of 4.8%. Employment grew significantly from 2002 to 2008, peaking at 6,372 in 2008. Since 2008 however, the sector has lost over 500 jobs. Similar to other leisure and hospitality indus- tries, job losses can be attributed to the recession and declines in consumer spending. As the economy continues to recover, employment is expected to in- crease. Employment projections show the accommodation and food services sec- tor growing by 9.2% nationally and 7.8% statewide from 2010 to 2020. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011): 5,810 Employment Change (2002 -2011): 4.8% Percent of Employment: 5.9% Location Quotient: 0.9 Number of Establishments: 483 Average Establishment Size: 12 Average Annual Wage: $15,677 Median Worker Age (Years): 30.0 ∙ Accommodation ∙ Food services and drinking places 9.2% Growth 7.8% Growth State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Ac c omm od at ion an d Food S erv ic es Employ ment in t he C NVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 38 Other Services 39 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Ot he r Ser vices The “other services” sector contains industries that do not fit into other NAICS categories such as non -profit organizations, repair and maintenance facilities, personal and laundry services, and private households. This sector had 3,806 em- ployees in 2011, comprising 3.6% of the region’s workforce. Employment patterns closely follow population patterns, with the highest concentration in Waterbury and smaller concentrations in Cheshire, Naugatuck, Southbury, and Watertown. The average annual wage was $24,337, which is 49.6% less than the regional average. From 2002 to 2011, the “other services” sector grew by 19.4%, the highest growth rate of any sector and an increase of 619 jobs. The region grew much faster than the state, which grew by 6.8% during the same time period. The sec- tor is projected to continue growing from 2010 to 2020 with a 13.6% increase nationally and 10.5% statewide. The “other services” sector was identified as one of the three current strengths of the region’s economy. However, because the sector is so broad, economic development strategies should focus on particular subsectors as opposed to the sector as a whole. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011) 3,806 Employment Change (2002 -2011) 19.4% Percent of Employment 3.9% Location Quotient 1.1 Number of Establishments: 918 Average Establishment Size: 4 Average Annual Wage: $24,337 Median Worker Age (Years): 43.1 ∙ Religious, professional and civic orgs. ∙ Repair and maintenance ∙ Personal and laundry services ∙ Private households 13.6% Growth 10.5% Growth State: National: O t her S erv ic es Emplo y ment in t he C NVR: 2011 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 40 Public Administration 41 Shrinking Growing Low High Employment Change 2002 -2011 Job Concentration Relative to State Publi c Ad minis tra ti on The public administration sector includes federal, state, and local government employees that manage and oversee public programs. In 2011 there were a total of 3,567 employees in the public administration sector accounting for 3.6% of total employment. Public school teachers, who are counted as employees in the educational services sector, are not included in the public administration employ- ment totals. The largest concentration of employment is found in Waterbury, followed by Cheshire (home of two state correctional institutions) and Nau- gatuck. Public administration employment generally follows population patterns, with larger municipalities having more employees. The region has a location quo- tient of 1.0, which is consistent with other parts of the state. Public administration employment stayed stable from 2002 to 2011, growing 1.2%, an increase of 44 jobs. From 2010 to 2020 employment is expected to con- tract by 1.2% statewide and grow by 5.6% nationally. State and local government employment is expected to grow by 4.0% while federal government employment is expected to drop by -24.4%. Most of the federal job losses are postal service workers lost through layoffs or attrition. Region al Trends Indust ry Pr ofile Majo r S ubs ec t ors Employment (2011) 3,567 Employment Change (2002 -2011) 1.2% Percent of Employment 3.6% Location Quotient 1.0 Number of Establishments: 235 Average Establishment Size:* 65 Average Annual Wage:* $55,967 Median Worker Age (Years): 45.3 ∙ Executive, legislative, and other government support ∙ Justice, public order, and safety ∙ Administration of government programs 5.6% Growth – 1.2% Decline State: National: Indust ry O ut look 2010— 202 0 Sources: Connecticut Department of Labor, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Public Ad minist rat i o n Employ m ent in t he C NVR: 2011 * Includes all public sector employment * 42