PM2.5 Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 1 Emissions Results Summary REGIONAL AIR QUALITY EMISSIONS ASSESSMENT PM2.5 NAAQS FFY 2015 -2018 TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM & LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLANS CENTRAL NAUGATUCK VALLEY MPO October 201 6 The Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 and the federal transportation regulations and legislation r ecognized the major contributions of transportation sources to the overall air quality problem evidenced throughout the country. To effectuate a reduction i n transportation – related emissions and a corresponding improvement in air quality, areas designated as non – attainment or maintenance for a criterion pollutant were required to demonstrate that their transportation plans, programs and projects contributed t o the attainment of National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and would not cause a new violation or delay attainment of the NAAQS . This process is referred to as Air Quality Conformity . The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) promulgated national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter in 1997. Fine particulate matter is referred to as PM2.5 and is a mixture of microscopic solids and suspended liquid solids in the air. It is formed directly as a by -product of combustion, such as smoke or automobile exhaust, or indirectly from chemical reactions in the atmosphere. Fairfield and New Haven Counties are included in the New York -New Jersey -Connecticut (NY -NJ -CT) P M2.5 non -attainment area. On April 17, 200 7 the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (CTDEEP) submitted a revision to the State Implementation Plan to establish interim progress for achieving the NAAQS for fine particulate matter and motor vehicle emission budgets. The annual emission budgets for the Connecticut portion of the NY -NJ -CT non -attainment area were determined to be adequate and are used in future analysis years. The EPA has also determined Connecticut’s PM2.5 attainment demonstration SIP to be administratively and technically complete as of January 8, 2009. Effective October 24, 2013, the Connecticut portion of the multi -state PM2.5 non -attainment area was re -designated as “attainment maintenance.” EPA’s guidance for mai ntenance plans calls for a demonstration of continued compliance by showing that future emissions during the maintenance period will not exceed the level of emission in the attainment inventory. The end of the maintenance period is 2025. The Connecticut D epartment of Transportation is responsible for conducting the air quality emissions assessments for the metropolitan planning organizations in Connecticut. The CTDOT uses the statewide travel demand model to estimate vehicle miles of travel for various cla sses of highways and during various time periods. The future transportation network includes all planned improvement projects and is based on the complete implementation of the transportation improvement program (TIP) and the long range transportation plan s. PM2.5 Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 2 Emissions Results Summary The MOVES2014a emissions model is used to establish emissions budgets for the 2017 and 2025 analysis years. Emission estimates were developed for direct PM2.5 and indirect PM2.5 emissions based on the estimate of NOx emissions, the most critical precu rsor of PM2.5. The conformity test requires the emissions from the future transportation system expected to be in place in 2017 to be less than the EPA -approved budget for 2017 and the emissions from the 2025 build scenario and subsequent years to be less than the 2025 budget. The emissions analyses were conducted for the following years:  2017 – Attainment year  2025 – End maintenance period  2035 – Interim modeling year  2040 – Long range transportation plan horizon year The results of the quantitative emis sions analysis conducted by CT DOT are shown i n the following table and the analysis year trends are depicted in the charts following the table. CENTRAL NAUGATUCK VALLEY PLANNING REGION 2015 -2040 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN REGION EMISSIONS ANALY SIS RESULTS Fine Particulate Matter (PM 2 .5 ) Annual NAAQS Co nnecticut Po rtio n o f the NY -NJ -LI-CT Area Direct PM 2. 5 Emission Analysis NO x Emission Analysis Analysis Year Action SIP Budget Difference Action SIP Budget Difference 2017 Emissions 313.10 575.80 -262.70 7942.80 12791.80 -4849.00 2025 Emissions 201.50 516.00 -314.50 4350.30 9728.10 -5377.80 2035 Emissions 153.50 516.00 -362.50 2713.10 9728.10 -7015.00 2045 Emissions 143.90 516.00 -372.10 2563.80 9728.10 -7164.30 1. A small reduction in VMT and emissions in the Greater Connecticut area will occur from the ECO program. 2. Emission analysis based on S UMMER and WINTER conditions. 3. NOx emissions are in tons per day and are calculated using Connecticut’s vehicle mix. 4. HMPS 12 Functional Class system used. PM2.5 Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 3 Emissions Results Summary 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2017 2025 2035 2040 Estimated Direct PM 2.5 Emissions by Analysis Year Compared to Approved EPA Budget CT Portion of the NY -NJ -LI -CT Non -Attainment Area Estimated Direct PM 2.5 Emissio ns (Tons/Year) SIP Bud get (To ns/Year) 0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.0 0 12,000.0 0 14,000.0 0 2017 2025 2035 2040 Estimated NOx (I ndirect) Emissions by Analysis Year Compared to Approved EPA Budget CT Portion of the NY -NJ -LI -CT Non -Attainment Area Estimated Nox (Ind ir ect) Emissio ns (Ton s/Year ) SIP Bud get (To ns/Year)