Ozone Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 1 Emissions Results Summary REGIONAL AIR QUALITY EMISSIONS ASSESSMENT ONE -HOUR OZONE NAAQS TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM – FFY 2015 -2018 FOR THE CENTRAL NAUGATUCK VALLEY METROPOLITAN PLANNING ORGANIZATION October 201 6 The Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 and the federal transportation regulations and legislation r ecognized the major contributions of transportation sources to the overall air quality problem evidenced throughout the country. To effect uate a reduction in transportation – related emissions and a corresponding improvement in air quality, areas designated as non – attainment or maintenance for a criterion pollutant were required to demonstrate that their transportation plans, programs and proj ects contributed to the attainment of National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and would not cause a new violation or delay attainment of the NAAQS . This process is referred to as Air Quality Conformity . Connecticut is divided into two non -attainme nt area for the 8 -hour ozone NAAQS , both are classified as “ Moderate ” non -attainment areas . Fairfield, New Haven and Middlesex counties are included as part of the New York -Northern New Jersey -Long Island non -attainment area. The remainder of the state is designated as the Greater Connecticut non -attainment area. In June, 2004, the EPA finalized the 8 -hour conformity for Ozone non -attainment areas and the designated the Connecticut portion of the New York -Northern New Jersey -Long Island non – attainment area as a “moderate” non -attainment areas for the 8 -hour Ozone standard. Subsequent decisions by the EPA and revisions to the approach for classifying non -attainment areas re -designated both of Connec ticut ’s non -attainment area s as a “marginal” non – attainment area s with an attainment date of December 31, 2015. Based on 2012 -2014 air quality data, the EPA determined that Connecticut’s non -attainment areas did not attain ozone standards by July20, 2015. Both the Greater Connecticut and the New York -New Jersey -Long Island areas were reclassified as “Moderate,” effective June 3, 2016. The new attainment date for these two areas is July 20, 2018. The Connecticut Department of Transportation is responsible f or conducting the air quality emissions assessments for the metropolitan planning organizations in Connecticut. The CTDOT uses the statewide travel demand model to estimate vehicle miles of travel for various classes of highways and during various time per iods. The future transportation network includes all planned improvement projects and is based on the complete implementation of the transportation improvement program (TIP) and the long range transportation plans. The MOVES201 4a emissions model is used t o calculate emissions from transportation travel and establish emissions budgets . The 8 -hour budgets were developed jointly by CTDOT and CTDEEP. The budgets were found to be adequate by EPA and can be used in comparing future transportation -related emissio n to determine conformity. Ozone Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 2 Emissions Results Summary The conformity test requires the emissions from the future transportation system to be less than the EPA -approved budgets for all analysis years. The emissions analyses were conducted for the following years:  201 7 – New Attainment year and near term analysis year  2025 – Interim modeling year  2035 – Interim modeling year  2040 – Long range transportation plan horizon year The results of the quantitative emis sions analysis conducted by CT DOT are shown in the following tab les and the analysis year trends are depicted in the charts following the tables. CENTRAL NAUGATUCK VALLEY PLANNING REGION 2015 -2040 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN REGION EMISSIONS ANALY SIS RESULTS 8-Ho ur Oz o ne NAAQS Co nnecticut Po rtio n o f the NY -NJ -LI-CT Area VOC Emission Analysis NO X Emission Analysis Ana lysis Ye a r Action SIP Budge t Diffe re nce Action SIP Budge t Diffe re nce 2017 Emissions 17.52 27.4 -9.88 24.8 54.6 -29.8 2025 Emissions 12.31 27.4 -15.09 13.24 54.6 -41.36 2035 Emissions 7.24 27.4 -20.16 7.83 54.6 -46.77 2040 Emissions 6.66 27.4 -20.74 7.33 54.6 -47.27 1. A small reduction in VMT and emissions in the Greater Connecticut area will occur from the ECO program in the Connecticut portion of the NY -NJ-LI area due to travel between the areas. 2. Emission analysis based on S UMMER conditions. 3. VOC & NOx emissions are in tons per day and are calculated using Connecticut’s vehicle mix. 4. HMPS 12 Functional Class system used. 5. National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV) program included in 2008 and future years. 6. Eight Hour Ozone emission budgets effective June 27, 2008. Ozone Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 3 Emissions Results Summary 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2017 2025 2035 2040 Estimated VOC Emissions by Analysis Year Compared to Approved EPA Budget CT Portion of NY -NJ -LI -CT Non -Attainment Area Estimated VOC emission s (Tons/D ay) EPA VOC Bud get (Tons/Day) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2017 2025 2035 2040 Estimated NOx Emissions by Analysis Year Compared to Approved EPA Budget CT Portion of NY -NJ -LI -CT Non -Attainment Area Estimated NOx Emissions (Ton s/Day) EPA NOx Budget (To ns/D ay) Ozone Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 4 Emissions Results Summary CENTRAL NAUGATUCK VALLEY PLANNING REGION 2015 -2040 LONG RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLAN REGION EMISSIONS ANALY SIS RESULTS 8-Ho ur Oz o ne NAAQS Greater Co nnecticut No n -Attainment Area VOC Emission Analysis NO X Emission Analysis Ana lysis Ye a r Action SIP Budge t Diffe re nce Action SIP Budge t Diffe re nce 2017 Emissions 15.99 26.3 -10.31 21.99 49.2 -27.21 2025 Emissions 11.39 26.3 -14.91 11.87 49.2 -37.33 2035 Emissions 6.7 26.3 -19.6 6.94 49.2 -42.26 2040 Emissions 6.17 26.3 -20.13 6.49 49.2 -42.71 1. A small reduction in VMT and emissions in the Greater Connecticut area will occur from the ECO program in the Connecticut portion of the NY -NJ-LI area due to travel between the areas. 2. Emission analysis based on S UMMER conditions. 3. VOC & NOx emissions are in tons per day and are calculated using Connecticut’s vehicle mix. 4. HMPS 12 Functional Class system used. 5. National Low Emission Vehicle (NLEV) program included in 2008 and future years. 6. Eight Hour Ozone emission budgets effective June 27, 2008. Ozone Air Quality Conformity Determination Page | 5 Emissions Results Summary 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2017 2025 2035 2040 Estimated VOC Emissions by Analysis Year Compared to Approved EPA Budget Greater CT Non -Attainment Area Estimated VOC emission s (Tons/Day) EPA VOC Bud get (Tons/Day) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2017 2025 2035 2040 Estimated NOx Emissions by Analysis Year Compared to Approved EPA Budget Greater CT Non -Attainment Area Estimated NOx Emissions (Ton s/Day) EPA NOx Budget (To ns/D ay)